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Following the startling flight demonstration of two, seemingly “sixth-generation” fighter aircraft by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, questions have been raised about how far behind the curve the US and other Western nations are.
While it has been no secret that both the US Air Force and US Navy have been working on their respective next-generation air dominance fighter aircraft going back at least a decade, recent and startling progress by Beijing has raised the alarm among uniformed personnel, political leaders and analysts across the world.
Of particular concern is the seeming but perhaps unsurprising layers of secrecy that has protected the Chinese fighter developments until the abrupt public revelations, leaving many questioning where the US is in the development cycle of their own next-generation fighter aircraft given relatively little has been released publicly over the past half decade.
It is worth noting that in May 2023, the US Air Force solicited proposals for their replacement of the F-22 Raptor, with Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall explaining the central role this future platform will play in the US Air Force’s future structure and air superiority role, saying, “The NGAD platform is a vital element of the Air Dominance family of systems which represents a generational leap in technology over the F-22, which it will replace.”
The strategy incorporates lessons learned from recent Air Force acquisition programs and will leverage open architecture standards – this approach will enable the US government to maximise competition throughout the life cycle, provide a larger, more responsive industry base and drastically reduce maintenance and sustainment costs.
“NGAD will include attributes such as enhanced lethality and the ability to survive, persist, interoperate and adapt in the air domain, all within highly contested operational environments. No one does this better than the US Air Force, but we will lose that edge if we don’t move forward now,” Secretary Kendall said.
The NGAD platform is one of many critical combat capabilities that will enable counter-air missions with the ability to strike both airborne and ground-based threats to achieve air superiority and support the Joint Force.
Not to be outdone, the US Navy, knee deep in its own development program for a sixth-generation fighter aircraft to replace the F/A-18E/F/G family of Super Hornet aircraft, confirmed in August 2023 it was engaging three contractors – Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman – in its own F/A-XX program.
At the time, a US Navy spokesperson told Breaking Defense, “F/A-XX has recently completed the concept refinement phase and has entered design maturation. Navy confirms that Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, GE Aerospace, and Pratt & Whitney are industry participants in the F/A-XX Program.”
This announcement comes following a long lull in the development of the program, after the US Senate armed services committee laid down the law in 2021, as part of the budgetary approval for the FY2020–21 National Defense Authorization Act, telling the branch to come up with a “concrete plan for fielding next-generation fighter aircraft”.
However, this isn’t exactly “new news”, with Dr Will Roper, former assistant secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics overseeing procurement for the US Air Force and Space Force from 2018 to 2021, confirming in September 2020 that the US Air Force was well ahead of the curve despite concerns it was falling behind it’s “pacing competitor” in the People’s Republic of China.
At the time, Dr Roper said, “I hope to have the acquisition plan for NGAD rolling into the Digital Century Series this summer. I don’t want to go more specific than that and timeline and drumbeat for the team, because I have given them an unprecedented task.”
Expanding on this, he added, “How long we keep the aircraft is one of the variables that they are weighing [as part of the business case]. How many years make sense? It’s clearly not two, three, four, five, but we don’t want it to be 30 either. So, they’re looking at that.
“They’re looking at the amount of modernisation that would be expected – what we would expect that to cost and if it gets easier with digital tools. And then summing it all up to see whether the cost of having a lethal airplane per year is less than for the Digital Century Series model than for the traditional.”
Adding to this, Dr Roper explained the focus of the NGAD program, saying, “If it is, that is going to really help us, I hope, because we’ll show that data and argue that it is not just better from a ‘competing with China and lethality’ standpoint. It’s just better from a business standpoint.
“If it breaks even or is less [than traditional methods], I will be exceptionally happy. If it’s more expensive – and I hope not exceptionally more – then we’re going to have to argue on behalf of the program.”
Now with Beijing lighting a fire under the US, the question becomes, how soon can we expect more details and more insight into the US Air Force and US Navy’s own sixth-generation fighter aircraft?
