Is arming Taiwan the best way to avoid war?

There are no signs of an easing of military tensions in the Taiwan Strait, particularly off the back of major multi-domain exercises by China’s People’s Liberation Army in the region and continued incursions of Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ).

Chinese military incursions have included the deployment of advanced fighter aircraft and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms.

More recently, China has been flying drones over small islands controlled by Taiwan, resulting in the grounding of at least one drone.

Meanwhile, the United States has continued to back Taiwan’s military modernisation strategy, approving the sale of billions of dollars in advanced weapons systems to the embattled island nation.

Most recently, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced the approval of two separate proposed purchases of AGM-84L-1 Harpoon Block II and AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder missiles to Taiwan for a combined US$440.6 million (AU$649 million).

The Harpoon deal, worth US$355 million (AU$523 million), includes the provision of four ATM-84L-1 Harpoon Block II exercise missiles and related equipment and technical assistance.

“This proposed sale serves US national, economic, and security interests by supporting the recipient’s continuing efforts to maintain a credible defensive capability,” the DSCA statement reads.

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“The proposed sale will help improve the security of the recipient and assist in maintaining political stability, military balance, and economic progress in the region.”

The Boeing-built Harpoon missiles would be deployed to support the modernisation of Taiwan’s military, providing a “flexible solution to augment existing surface and air defences”.

Specifically, the missiles would be used to counter or deter maritime aggression, coastal blockades, and amphibious assaults.

“This equipment will contribute to the recipient’s goal of updating its military capability while further enhancing interoperability with the United States and other allies,” the DSCA adds.

Meanwhile, the proposed sale of AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder missiles, worth approximately $85.6 million (AU$126.1 million), includes four AIM-9X Block II tactical guidance units and related equipment and technical assistance.

The Raytheon-built Sidewinder missiles are expected to enable Taiwan to counter or deter offensive air-based threats.

The US stressed both the proposed Harpoon and Sidewinder sales would not “alter the basic military balance” in the region.

Alan Dupont, non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute agrees, insisting military and non-military support for Taiwan from the US and its allies, including Australia, would not undermine stability by provoking Beijing.

“The fallacy is that the increased tensions over Taiwan are largely the fault of the US and that Australian national security hawks are part of the problem,” he writes in a piece originally published in The Australian.

Instead, Dupont argues Beijing’s intimidation of Taiwan is the “primary cause of escalating tensions”.

He continues: “Taiwan has not been flying drones over China, penetrating its air defence identification zone, lobbing missiles over the mainland or threatening economic embargoes.

Conversely, Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, has been “pragmatic, understated”, respected for her “calm leadership”.

“She has never crossed Beijing’s red line by publicly declaring Taiwan’s independence. To hold her accountable for the rising tensions is like blaming the victim for a mugging,” Dupont adds.

Dupont goes on to note Western support for Taiwan is nothing new, pointing to US obligations to support Taiwan’s defence under the Taiwan Relations Act.

Rather, Dupont continues, the problem lies with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who has openly expressed plans to alter the status quo.

Dupont seeks to dispel claims of “hawkish” rhetoric from the West, drawing from China-Taiwan commentary in Australia.    

He stresses both sides of politics are aware of the devastating consequences of war in the region, and hence favour a deterrence strategy.  

“Labor, the Coalition and the Biden administration share the assessment that the goal of the allies must be to prevent a war over Taiwan by deterring China from using force,” he writes.

“This can be achieved only by persuading Xi that the costs of such an action far outweigh any perceived gain.

“Peace won’t be advanced by abandoning Taiwan or dealing with China from a position of weakness.”

As such, Dupont concludes by advocating for continued military and non-military aid to Taiwan, without fearing provocation claims. 

“We should reject the view that Taiwan doesn’t matter, that the US is responsible for the escalating crisis or that Washington faces the binary choice of leaving Taiwan to its fate or committing to its defence and risking catastrophic defeat,” he writes.

“There are many other choices. The best way to avoid a war is for the US to arm Taiwan, as it has Ukraine, and for the democracies to use their economic and financial power to dissuade China from choosing the path of coercion and military force.”

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