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Retired Major General Mick Ryan turned to Twitter to unpack the Kremlin’s primary military objectives following the recent reserve mobilisation, and what the mobilisation could mean for the Russian war effort.
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In a televised address earlier in the week, President Vladimir Putin announced the mobilisation of 300,000 of the nation’s reserve servicemen to support the war effort in Ukraine.
According to the requirements of the mobilisation, some 25 million Russians would be eligible for the call-up.
Despite Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territory since 2014 and annexation of Crimea in 2016, Putin justified the mobilisation as necessary for the protection of Russia against NATO aggression.
“The issue concerns the necessary, imperative measures to protect the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of Russia and support the desire and will of our compatriots to choose their future independently,” Putin claimed.
In the speech, Putin charged the “West” with breaking up the Soviet Union, which they are looking to do again by dismantling the Russian Federation.
“The goal of that part of the West is to weaken, divide and ultimately destroy our country. They are saying openly now that in 1991 they managed to split up the Soviet Union and now is the time to do the same to Russia, which must be divided into numerous regions that would be at deadly feud with each other.”
In a series of Tweets, Major General (Ret’d) Mick Ryan explained that Putin’s speech was designed to balance demands from the military and nationalists to achieve the Kremlin’s stated objectives and win the war in Ukraine, while not upsetting the public through a general mobilisation.
The speech from Putin today is a careful balancing act of a leader under pressure, who is trying to: 1. please hardliners and Russian milbloggers; 2. not displease the general populace; 3. appease the military; 4. give the impression he is not losing a war. 1/20 ?
— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) September 21, 2022
However, the retired Major General accused Putin of carefully wording the speech to absolve the Kremlin of blame for any future failures in the war.
“On mobilisation - it is interesting that he doesn’t describe it as his order, rather “I find it necessary to support the proposal of the Defence Ministry and the General Staff on partial mobilisation”. This sets up the military for eventual blame in the war,” MAJGEN (Ret’d) Ryan tweeted.
The deflection is not the first time in which the Russian President sought to blame the state’s security services for the invasion, holding spies within the FSB responsible for failed intelligence at the commencement of the invasion.
While the President hopes that the speech will bridge a gap between those in Russia for and against the war, MAJGEN (Ret’d) Ryan does not believe that it will be successful, rather, it will only serve to alienate Putin from both camps.
“The partial mobilisation is unlikely to appease hardliners and will probably scare the general population. Perhaps this is why airfares out of Russia are selling so quickly,” he continued.
While flights out of Russia had sold out following Putin’s address, search data has also shown broad aversion to the Kremlin’s call-up with “how to break an arm at home” becoming the country’s most Googled phrase.
Amid the general malaise, MAJGEN (Ret’d) Ryan casts doubt on whether the mobilisation would even be successful, with those called up having to undergo training before joining the area of operations and with the numbers insufficient to make sweeping battlefield changes.
Such constraints would give the Ukrainian forces extra time to continue their counteroffensives or construct defensive positions before the new troops arrive.
“And those that remain in Ukraine have been in combat for nearly 8 months. Given combat performance degrades from the 3-4 month mark, this is an exhausted force which needs rotation. Such rotation was impossible without this partial mobilisation,” he tweeted.
Cynicism toward Putin’s mobilisation has been shared widely, with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky arguing that the speech demonstrated Russia’s battlefield failures.
“Russia’s decision on mobilisation is a frank admission that their regular army, which has been prepared for decades to take over a foreign country, did not withstand and crumbled,” Zelensky responded.
