In June, it was revealed that the government was looking to double its defence spending amid the growth of geopolitical threats surrounding the country and embark on an ambitious plan to provide maritime aid to smaller countries throughout the Indo-Pacific.

With Japan’s current defence spending at 5.4 trillion yen, doubling the budget would see Japan become the world’s third largest defence spender.

Appealing to the public to support his range of spending increases, PM Kishida’s advisors explained that the Japanese defence budget was an important task that must be shared by all Japanese people.

“Recognising that the entire nation must cooperate in this, it is necessary to win public understanding with a range of tax measures that spread the burden,” it was reported.

The announcement came as experts urged the Japanese government to broaden the nation’s defence capabilities amid concerns that “Tokyo remains grossly unprepared for such a possibility”.

Writing for ASPI’s The Strategist, former special adviser to Shinzo Abe’s cabinet, Tomohiko Taniguchi, explained that Japan is exposed to threats from China, Russia and North Korea. And while these threats have been low, the risk of conventional conflict has been increasing.

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“That raises the possibility that Russia and North Korea might prepare for joint military action against Japan and combined US-Japanese forces if Taiwan is attacked by China’s People’s Liberation Army,” he warned.

“As a seafaring island nation, it is vital for Japan to keep the vast stretch of Indo-Pacific seascape free, open and protected by rules.

“That’s where the country’s biggest national security interest lies. Should Taiwan be lost to Beijing, there will eventually be no FOIP, and the Quad will become so ineffective as to be meaningless.”

Particularly, Taniguchi warns that the country will be particularly vulnerable to China’s anti-access and area-denial strategy, reducing the ability for Japan to rely on US assistance.

Geopolitical constraints will likely impair Japan’s situation. According to the former advisor, there will be less global solidarity in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan compared to the international reaction to Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, requiring Japan to maintain self-sufficiency.

“Even if Beijing mounts a direct military assault against Taiwan, the rest of the world may be much less united than it is now against Russia over Ukraine,” he warned.

“Taiwan is a member of neither the United Nations nor its affiliated bodies, and neither Japan nor the US has formally acknowledged its status as an independent state.”