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How will Tehran’s growing influence on the Russia-Ukraine conflict influence the outcome of the protracted struggle?
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The international community has largely rallied against Russia since it launched an invasion of Ukraine in late February.
The United States, its NATO partners and other like-minded nations (including Australia) were quick to back the Ukrainian resistance, committing billions of dollars in military equipment and humanitarian relief.
But Russia has found its own sources of support, with the likes of China and Iran helping to sustain Moscow’s war.
Beijing has cushioned the blow of the West’s economic sanctions, while Tehran has supplied Russian forces with military equipment.
Iran’s military support has included the provision of loitering drones, surface-to-surface missiles, and training officials.
But Tehran may be upping the ante, with recent reports suggesting the Islamist regime is considering the delivery of short-range ballistic missiles like the Fateh and Zolfaghar systems.
Peter Brookes, senior research fellow, Center for National Defense at the Heritage Foundation, flags the potential implications of these “deeply troubling” reports.
“Those expected Iranian ballistic missile transfers to the Kremlin would allow Russia to continue its unprovoked aggression against Ukraine, aiding and abetting Moscow’s targeting of civilian and critical infrastructure targets as the bitter cold of Eurasian winter rolls in,” he writes in a piece originally published in The Daily Signal.
The arms sales, he adds, would also bring “significant benefits” to Tehran, which is “spreading its influence” beyond the Middle East.
“…Tehran’s support to Russia in its time of need will tighten bilateral ties with Moscow,” Brookes continues.
“Russia will certainly look kindly toward Iran in the (stalemated) Iran nuclear deal negotiations, at the United Nations, and on the global oil market.
“There’s also reason for concern that Moscow will be helpful to Iran on a range of military research and development programs that will aid the capabilities of Tehran’s military and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.”
Additionally, Iranian weapons sales to Russia would enable Tehran to put its military capability to the test in a foreign warzone.
“…Iran will almost certainly get operational feedback on the performance of its armed drones and, eventually, its ballistic missiles in the war,” he writes.
“Iranian advisers are reportedly forward-deployed to Russia and Crimea to train Russian troops on drone operations.
“Those invaluable insights will potentially allow Tehran to improve the effectiveness of its weapons — not only for its own use, but for that of its allies and armed proxies against their individual and mutual enemies, including the US and Israel.”
If proven effective in the battlespace, other international customers may also look to strike weapons deals with Tehran.
“If Iranian weapons perform well in Russian hands, it could also improve interest in international sales of Tehran’s arms and increase military R&D cooperation, including from, and with, the likes of North Korea,” Brookes observes.
Accordingly, strong demand for Iranian weapons would deepen the “repressive regime’s dwindling coffers”, enabling Tehran to continue funding its exploits around the world.
Brookes continues: “Those revenues will unquestionably support the regime’s domestic crackdown on dissent, its international adventurism (e.g., Yemen and Syria), its terrorist allies (e.g., Hezbollah and Hamas), its armed proxies (e.g., Iraq), and its burgeoning nuclear (weapons) program.”
He concludes by lamenting the human toll of a ramp up in Iranian arms support for Russia.
“Due to its poor military performance to date and Ukraine’s incredible courage and resilience, Russia’s war on Ukraine is in need of a ‘boost’ — possibly in the form of Iranian short-range ballistic missiles,” he writes.
“Those Iranian missile transfers, if they occur, would serve to increase the violence and bloodshed in Ukraine — and, equally unfortunately, will broadly advance Iran’s worrisome, anti-West national interests, too.”
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