Pentagon report details increased Chinese military capabilities, emphasis on coercion

From the moment the first laser-guided bombs fell from combat aircraft and Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired from an array of warships in the Persian Gulf against targets across Iraq in January 1991, the very nature of contemporary conflict changed forever.

The speed, accuracy, and lethality of then next-generation weapons systems, the interconnected coordination, command and control, and overwhelming advantages in surveillance, intelligence, and reconnaissance capabilities provided the US-led Western world with a seemingly unassailable tactical and strategic advantage.

This advantage would be repeated to similar lethal effect in almost every combat scenario throughout the 1990s and early-2000s, no matter the adversary, the US and its allies were overwhelmingly superior.

Yet across the globe, watching, waiting, and collaborating were potential adversaries we had been assured would become responsible, respectable, and engaged members of the global communion of nations as the hubris of the post-Cold War era swept across the world and we, in the West, embraced the “end of history”.

We now know that was a flight of fantasy, with a potentially devastating outcome.

It is no secret that Beijing has been embarking on the largest peacetime modernisation and expansion of its military capabilities, with Xi’s emphasis on transforming the People’s Liberation Army in its entirety becoming a truly global force, with the inescapable capacity to dominate the Indo-Pacific.

The Indo-Pacific is a vastly different operating environment to the traditional land-locked environs of the Middle East, Central Asia, and even parts of Europe.

VIEW ALL

A region largely dominated by its maritime environs, characterised by critical sea lines of communication, tight, narrow, archipelagic chokepoints, vast swathes of open ocean all requiring a balanced approach to military power.

As the global centre of economic, political, and strategic power has shifted from Europe towards the Indo-Pacific, many regional nations have moved to modernise and expand their own military capabilities to secure their own national interests and ambitions across the Indo-Pacific.

Front and centre is Xi Jinping’s China, which has leveraged the nation’s meteoric economic, political, and industrial rise since the period of liberalisation kicking off in the late 1970s and truly taking force in the late-1980s and early-1990s.

In order to deliver this, Xi has embarked on the largest peacetime modernisation and build-up of military capabilities since the Second World War, fundamentally transforming the People’s Liberation Army into one of the world’s pre-eminent military forces.

At the core of Xi’s efforts and serving as the driving force behind Beijing’s modernisation is an effort to learn the lessons of the Gulf Wars and rectify the humiliation of America’s unopposed intervention in the Taiwan Strait crisis of the mid-1990s.

Highlighting this, the latest Pentagon annual report into the modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army has detailed the rapid pace at which the People’s Liberation Army is being transformed into a truly global force of consequence and its impacts on the global balance of power.

International order in its sights

At the core of the Pentagon’s analysis is the growing recognition and acceptance among the US national security community that, “China is the only competitor with the intent, will and capability to reshape the international order.”

Seeking to stress the ambition of China’s modernisation, the report cites the growing attempts at coercion and stressing the international order that the People’s Liberation Army has attempted in growing frequency, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.

The Pentagon details this, warning, “Throughout the year, the PLA adopted more coercive actions in the Indo-Pacific region, while accelerating its development of capabilities and concepts to strengthen the PRC’s ability to ‘fight and win wars’ against a ‘strong enemy’, counter an intervention by a third party in a conflict along the PRC’s periphery, and to project power globally.”

This growing global reach of the People’s Liberation Army has been seen more recently following Beijing’s deployment of a naval task group to the eastern Mediterranean following Hamas’ 7 October devastating surprise attack on Israel which has only served to demonstrate the ever growing reach of China’s influence.

At the core of this push is what the Pentagon report describes as, “The PRC’s national strategy is to achieve ‘the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’ by 2049. The strategy is a determined pursuit of political, social, and military modernity to expand the PRC’s national power, perfect its governance, and revise the international order in support of the PRC’s system of governance and national interests. The PRC views the United States as deploying a whole-of-government effort meant to contain the PRC’s rise, which presents obstacles to its national strategy.”

Unpacking this further, the Pentagon report states, “The PRC characterises its view of strategic competition in terms of a rivalry among powerful nation states, as well as a clash of opposing ideological systems. PRC leaders believe that structural changes in the international system and a confrontational United States are the root causes of intensifying strategic competition between the PRC and the United States.”

Xi’s China is not alone in challenging the post-Second World War order however, with rising global tensions and multipolarity evident from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the deteriorating situation in the Middle East, explained by a “senior US Defense official” at the release of the report: “China’s deepening security ties with Russia are covered. In fact, as the official was detailing the content of the report, Chinese President Xi Jinping was meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin at a ceremony marking the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative in China. The senior defense official said China sees its emergence as a great power as tied to the alliance with Russia.”

China’s extensive military modernisation is rapidly transforming the People’s Liberation Army into a truly comprehensive, multi-domain force designed with a key objective: usurp the US-led world order.

The Pentagon report stresses this point, stating, “The PLA has sought to modernise its capabilities and improve its proficiencies across all warfare domains so that, as a joint force, it can conduct the full range of land, air, and maritime as well as nuclear, space, counterspace, electronic warfare (EW), and cyber space operations.

“The PLA’s evolving capabilities and concepts continue to strengthen the PRC’s ability to ‘fight and win wars’ against a ‘strong enemy (强敌)’ (a likely euphemism for the United States), counter an intervention by a third party in a conflict along the PRC’s periphery, and project power globally,” the report articulates.

The Pentagon’s spokesperson added, “We see the PRC continuing to quite rapidly modernise and diversify and expand its nuclear forces. They are expanding and investing in their land, sea and air-based nuclear delivery platforms, as well as the infrastructure that’s required to support this.”

Final thoughts

Importantly, in this era of renewed competition between autarchy and democracy, this is an uncomfortable conversation that needs to be had in the open with the Australian people, as ultimately, they will be called upon to help implement it, to consent to the direction, and to defend it should diplomacy fail.

Our economic resilience, capacity, and competitiveness will prove equally as critical to success in the new world power paradigm as that of the United States, the United Kingdom, or Europe, and we need to begin to recognise the opportunities presented before us.

Expanding and enhancing the opportunities available to Australians while building critical economic resilience, and as a result, deterrence to economic coercion, should be the core focus of the government because only when our economy is strong can we ensure that we can deter aggression towards the nation or our interests.

This also requires a greater degree of transparency and a culture of innovation and collaboration between the nation’s strategic policymakers, elected officials, and the constituents they represent and serve – equally, this approach will need to entice the Australian public to once again invest in and believe in the future direction of the nation.

Additionally, Australia will need to have an honest conversation about how we view ourselves and what our own ambitions are. Is it reasonable for Australia to position itself as a “middle” or “regional” power in this rapidly evolving geopolitical environment? Equally, if we are going to brand ourselves as such, shouldn’t we aim for the top tier to ensure we get the best deal for ourselves and our future generations?

If we are going to emerge as a prosperous, secure, and free nation in the new era of great power competition, it is clear we will need break the shackles of short-termism and begin to think far more long term, to the benefit of current and future generations of Australians.

Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia’s future role and position in the Indo-Pacific region and what you would like to see from Australia’s political leaders in terms of partisan and bipartisan agenda setting in the comments section below, or get in touch at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..