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Regardless of the nitpicking from Russian apologists, no, Ukraine’s stalled advance doesn’t indicate a Russian victory. With the world’s “second army” stopped in its tracks, we’ve already met the primary objective of the war in Ukraine. Any successive wins are a bonus.
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In July 2023, US Colonel (ret’d) Douglas Macgregor took to Twitter to inform the world that the Ukrainian military was just weeks away from collapse.
“HERE IS WHAT THE MEDIA WILL NOT TELL YOU… Ukrainian forces are on the verge of collapse, they are totally demoralised. They have all been killed, it’s OVER.”
One would likely respect and recognise the opinions of a retired US Army colonel, especially one who has had the operational experience of COL Macgregor, including serving as one of the US military’s top planners during the NATO intervention in Yugoslavia.
But the thing is, Macgregor made the very same prediction months earlier in February 2023.
“The Russians are winning. Ukraine is crumbling. Ukraine’s on the verge of collapse. We’re gonna watch that happen over the next several weeks ... The Russians will crush out of existence what remains of the Ukrainian armed forces.”
And yet again in June 2022.
“It’s now becoming so apparent that even the most ardent supporters of Ukraine’s war on Russia in London, Berlin, Paris and Washington can’t really stand up and say anything else. I suppose some will, but the trust in the war is over.”
Since Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, naysayers in the West have consistently sought to undermine and belittle Ukraine and the West’s capacity to project power against invading Russian forces. Indeed, at times it has been hard to discern what is deliberate Russian disinformation as opposed to just an ill-informed opinion of a national security expert.
However, while individuals such as COL Macgregor have sowed division among policymakers and whipped up a panicked frenzy among the public, it is critical to remember that the Ukrainian resistance – supported by the West – has long achieved its primary objective: the continued survival of the Ukrainian state.
Casting our minds back to 2022, it was never immediately obvious that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would be able to stop the world’s “second army”. Yes, many expected that Russian military equipment may not be as advanced or well-maintained as Russia proudly declares. And yes, many expected that the Russian military would have substantial challenges in taking and holding large population centres such as Kyiv.
Still, many thought that a Russian victory was inevitable. In the earliest days of the invasion, General Mark Milley, yes – the same chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who held secret meetings with China – predicted that Kyiv would fall within “72 hours”.
Even the BBC’s former foreign correspondent in Russia called reports of Russian battlefield losses “nonsense” and called for the West to stop sending weapons to support Ukraine as there was simply no hope for combat victories.
But Ukraine has more than just survived. It has truly and utterly degraded the entire Russian military.
Despite having absolute naval superiority, Russia has lost an estimated 22 of 80 vessels in its Black Sea Fleet. As a result, Russia has now withdrawn its Black Sea Fleet from Crimea. Meanwhile, due to ongoing battlefield losses, the Russian Army has been fielding pre-1960s Russian T-54 and T-55 tanks in Ukraine for over a year.
The survival of the Ukrainian state has shown that Ukraine and the US-led West have achieved the primary objective of supporting Ukrainian resistance fighters enough to ensure the continued existence of the Ukrainian state. The fact that Ukraine has been able to demonstrate sophisticated combined arms fighting and take back swathes of land is beyond initial expectations.
Though, as the war in Ukraine enters its third year, the West cannot give into impatience and expect immediate results. Big wars can take a very long time to resolve. It also cannot fall into the trap of believing that “just because Ukraine hasn’t beaten Russia yet means that Russia won”. We’ve already achieved substantial success – let’s not yield.
