Radical, angry and anti-NATO: A peek into France’s new National Assembly

Sunday’s second round of French parliamentary elections saw the New Popular Front (NFP) – a coalition of socialists, communists, greens and their allies – snatch an election victory amid a surging far-right National Rally (RN).

The election was a rare example of a gamble paying off in politics. Called in response to RN’s success in June’s European elections, the snap poll caught the right off balance and even precipitated a civil war in the centre-right Les Republicains.

Of course, the results of the French election have been well covered. While Europe’s establishment celebrates the loss of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s RN, the incoming NFP coalition will bring anti-NATO and Russophilic policymaking right back into the heart of France’s National Assembly.

With 1.65 million French citizens living in overseas territories across the Indo-Pacific, Australia needs to be weary of how a nod to the world’s increasingly belligerent revisionist nations will add fuel to an already volatile region.

Wait, what? I thought Le Pen was the pro-Russian candidate?

The most recent round of voting saw the centrist Ensemble, a coalition founded by President Emmanuel Macron, enter into an agreement with the NFP to unite the anti-right vote. This saw the NFP stand down 132 candidates, and Ensemble stand down 80 - a wildly successful ploy. Despite RN convincingly topping the election with 37 per cent of the vote, the agreement pushed them into third place for seats.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Macron has buried any historic and remnant strategic ambiguity toward Russia. During recent months, the French President hinted at his willingness to send foreign troops to support Ukraine with firm plans to provide Mirage 2000-5s and military trainers. Despite his sluggish start, 2024 has seen France step-up to the mantle and champion Ukraine’s cause in NATO – seemingly more so than the US or Germany.

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Though, like all recent elections in the West, the relationship between fringe right parties and Putin’s authoritarian regime has loomed large in the minds of voters- and for good reason. Just months ago, German police alleged that top candidates and staffers for the nationalist AfD spied for China and received funds from Russia.

Reasonably, the suspicion carried across to RN – whose party leaders have a well-documented history of geopolitical hedging between NATO and Russia. Accusations over Le Pen’s lingering relationship with Russia reached its apotheosis during the campaign when the Russian Foreign Ministry posted a photo of Le Pen following her election win with the caption: “The people of France are seeking a sovereign foreign policy that serves their national interest & a break from the dictate of Washington & Brussels,” according to Le Monde.

Now, hear me out. Russia isn’t exactly flavour of the month – and they would know that. After all, fewer than one-third of French voters actually oppose providing Ukraine with support. It therefore seems quizzical that the Russians thought they were doing the French-right any favours with an open endorsement. Rather, it seems more likely that Russia's endorsement was a torpedo against RN’s campaign.

Over recent years, RN leaders have hardened their rhetoric on Russia with Le Pen openly backtracking on her previous calls for an independent foreign policy and even supporting weapons exports to Ukraine: “When a nation like Russia attacks another nation and threatens its sovereignty, there is no possible equidistance, you have to take a stand,” she told El Pais.

The statements were recently reiterated on the campaign trail by would-be RN prime minister Jordan Bardella: “I will not let Russian imperialism absorb an allied state like Ukraine.”

Though, while headlines focused on what France’s first far-right government since the war might mean for regional stability, few thought to give attention to how the outsider left might shape French policymaking if they somehow managed to win.

Trailing 12 points behind RN with 25.8 per cent of the vote, the New Popular Front – made up of socialists, greens, communists, regional parties and trade unions – makes up the largest bloc in the National Assembly. The largest member group is La France Insoumise, led by far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon.

In 2017, Melenchon advocated for France’s American territories to join the anti-imperialist Bolivarian alliance ALBA which was established by Cuba and Venezuela. It boasts Iran and Syria as observer members and even invited Russia to join their 2023 ALBA Games. This relatively obscure policy is consistent with his longstanding support for France's withdrawal from NATO and support for a One China policy.

The proof is in the pudding. As recently as March, Melenchon’s LFI, alongside the communists and far left, voted against France’s €3 billion security agreement with Ukraine. Even Le Pen abstained.

Though, during the election, Melenchon took a particular interest in targeting Israel, calling on France to issue economic sanctions the country: “It appears that economic sanctions bring violent people to their senses. This is exactly what was done against Russia, so we must call for economic sanctions against the government of the State of Israel so that it reconsiders its criminal attitude.”

It's clear that the success of the NFP will shake up the Western order. However, there is no such thing as a fait accompli in French politics.

With the National Assembly split between the far left, centrists and far right, there is no clear pathway to a majority. And though the far left and centrists worked together to deny the RN power, both blocs have refused to endorse one another for prime minister.

It seems perhaps fortunate that foreign affairs and defence powers primarily remain under the remit of the president.

Final thoughts

With 1.65 million French citizens living in the Indo-Pacific, France is undoubtedly a regional power. With some of the most influential names in French politics outwardly Russophilic (in the case of Melenchon) or indifferent (in the case of Le Pen), instability in the National Assembly can risk further volatility in on our doorstep. We should ignore these results at our own peril.