Growing concerns about China conflict dominate Australian public thinking

It is not hyperbole to state that the world in which we live is increasingly contested, competitive, and fraught with risk.

Depending on the demographic you ask, the order of challenges and their respective priority ranges from concerns about the environment, declining employment and housing prospects through to cost of living, mounting government debt, and a host of other issues.

The mounting geopolitical tensions and competition now reshaping the global balance of power is beginning to figure more prominently in the public consciousness, driven in large part by the ongoing war in Ukraine, the horrific attacks of October 7, and Beijing’s repeated antagonism closer to home.

Highlighting this polling conducted by The Australian has revealed some startling results as it relates to the sentiments of the Australian public across a range of age brackets, conflicting with data points gathered in recent years to similar questions.

China threat increasingly recognised, but terrorism still a major concern

Perhaps, unsurprisingly, the threat posed by the People’s Republic of China and its ambitions for both the regional and global order have increased in centrality for the Australian public, overtaking Indonesia as the main source of the nation’s strategic and security-related anxiety.

The Australian’s polling revealed that nearly 60 per cent of Australians believe that military conflict with the rising superpower and our primary trading partner is likely in the next two decades, while 6 per cent regard it as “very likely” over the next 20 years.

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While China’s bumping of Indonesia from the top perceived threat is certainly interesting, terrorism continues to figure prominently in the minds of Australians, with the polling data revealing that 76 per cent of Australians expect a terror attack within the next two decades, although this is a slight dip from the high of 79 per cent in 2014.

There is no doubt that this feedback is important, particularly as it relates to the recognition of Beijing as the primary economic, political, and strategic threat to Australia and its enduring peace and prosperity over the coming decades; however, it isn’t all good news.

Wishful thinking dominates the public consciousness

Perhaps, most interestingly, polling response across a range of demographics including 18–34, 35–49, and 50+ age brackets reveal a growth in the proportion of Australians who believe we could defend ourselves without help.

Specifically, The Australian’s polling again reveals that nearly 60 per cent of 18–34-year-olds believe we could defend ourselves without help, while 40 per cent of 35–49 and 22 per cent of 50 and over believe that to be the case.

These figures compare to 54 per cent of 18–34-year-olds who didn’t believe we could defend ourselves without assistance in 2014, with 72 per cent of 35–49-year-olds and 81 per cent of over 50 believing it to be the case.

This data then feeds into polling around Australian confidence in the US as our primary strategic benefactor with 37 per cent of 18–34-year-olds believing that the US was very likely to render aid to Australia if attacked by another country, meanwhile 32 per cent of 35–49-year-olds and 47 per cent of over 50s believed the figure.

While this data reveals positive belief that the United States would intervene to defend the nation if attacked, it does reveal the widespread naivety prominent among the younger generations and, to a lesser extent, Australians more broadly and a complete disconnect from the dangerous reality the nation faces as a result of the state of the Australian Defence Force.

Final thoughts

Australians seem reluctant at best or, indeed, even oblivious at worst that the world is increasingly becoming “multipolar” and our own home, the Indo-Pacific, in particular, is rapidly becoming the most hotly contested region in the world.

Declining economic opportunity, coupled with the rapidly deteriorating global and regional balance of power and the increased politicisation of every aspect of contemporary life, only serves to exacerbate the very reality of disconnection, apathy, and helplessness felt by many Australians.

This attitude is only serving to be compounded and creates a growing sentiment that we are speeding towards a predestined outcome, thus disempowering the Australian people and, to a lesser extent, policymakers as we futilely confront seemingly insurmountable challenges with little-to-no benefit and at a high-risk/reward calculation.

Taking into account the costs and implications, it is therefore easy to understand why so many Australians, both in the general public and within our decision-making circles, seem to have checked out and are quite happy to allow the nation to continue to limp along in mediocrity because, well, it is easier than having lofty ambitions.

If both Australian policymakers and the Australian public don’t snap out of the comforting security blanket that is the belief in the “End of History”, the nation will continue to rapidly face an uncomfortable and increasingly dangerous new reality, where we truly are no longer the masters of our own destiny.

All of this combines to form a rather confronting and disconcerting outcome for our long-term national security and one that requires remedying immediately if Australia is to be positioned to capitalise on the truly epoch-defining industrial, economic, political, and strategic shifts currently underway across the globe.

After all, how can we ask and reasonably expect Australians, particularly young Australians, to put the national interest ahead of their own when the nation doesn’t seem to account for their own interests, particularly when taken to the end of its logical extension, the national interest is at its core, the individual’s interest?

Ultimately, Australia and Australians face these two concurrent yet interconnected challenges, which stand as the greatest challenges of our age, so which way, Australia?

Do we want to be competitive, consequential and thriving, or do we want to be “steady and sturdy” in our managed decline?

Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia’s future role and position in the Indo-Pacific region and what you would like to see from Australia’s political leaders in terms of partisan and bipartisan agenda setting in the comments section below, or get in touch at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..