Zero day: Taiwan falling short on preparing for Chinese hostilities

In light of mounting Chinese invasions of Taiwan’s airspace and territorial waters, this has seen growing concerns about Taiwan’s level of preparedness and capacity to resist a coordinated and focused invasion effort.

For Beijing, the breakaway renegade island democracy of Taiwan is a powerful and humiliating reminder of the rising superpower’s humiliating history during the 19th and early-20th century where it was the playground of foreign empires eager to exploit the wealth and prestige of the East, eventually culminating in the victory of Mao’s Revolution in 1949.

The survival and expulsion of Chinese nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek’s routed forces to the island of Taiwan, under the protection of the United States, is the last embarrassing slap in the face for the Middle Kingdom following the end of the “Century of Humiliation”.

Conversely, for the United States, the enduring support for the self-governing Taiwanese people stands out as one of the last remaining ideological battlegrounds of the Cold War between Marxist communism and liberal democracy and, in many ways, marks a moment of recognition by the United States that even it has limitations.

Yet for many across the Indo-Pacific, the calculations associated with a potential conflict over Taiwan are rapidly revealing to leaders in capital cities across the world that the costs may indeed be too great to bear.

Equally, these same leaders are being forced to grapple with the uncomfortable reality that not intervening may, in fact, create a far more dangerous regional and global paradigm, with the resulting inaction serving to embolden Chinese President Xi Jinping and other authoritarian leaders across the globe, harkening back to the example of the 1938 Munich Peace Conference, just a year before Germany’s invasion of Poland ignited the Second World War.

In response to any successful pushback against a Chinese invasion, leaders across both the Indo-Pacific and, more broadly, the global environment, have recognised that Taiwan must have “sufficient” and “suitable” capability to guarantee its sovereignty in the face of repeated and increasing antagonism and hostility by the People’s Republic of China.

However, it now appears that Taiwan’s own preparations may be falling short of the mark despite a host of announcements and high-profile weapons acquisitions designed to complicate and delay Chinese invasion or blockade forces.

Highlighting this is Christian Shepherd and Vic Chiang writing for The Washington Post, in a piece titled Taiwan is readying citizens for a Chinese invasion. It’s not going well, in which the pair detail Taiwan’s struggling preparedness protocols.

All systems go for preparations, or are they?

As Beijing steps up its efforts to coerce both Taiwan and its neighbours, Taiwan’s new president, “William” Lai Ching-te – regarded by Beijing as a “dangerous separatist” – has sought to accelerate Taipei’s modernisation and preparation plans.

Highlighting this, Shepherd and Chiang stated, “The threat from Beijing has intensified as Chinese leader Xi Jinping has declared China’s ‘reunification’ with Taiwan inevitable. He has underscored his willingness to use force to achieve that goal by sending rising numbers of warplanes and navy ships to probe the island’s defences.”

Going further the pair added, “Taiwan’s government has been trying to improve its defences by extending mandatory military service and revamping ongoing training for reservists as part of a broader shift in defence strategy designed to make Xi think twice before taking a gamble on using force.”

Yet despite these efforts, the young people of Taiwan aren’t necessarily heading the call of duty and stepping forward to defend the nation and its interests, echoing similar trends experienced both in Australia and more broadly across the Western World in recent years.

The pair stated, “Defense Minister Wellington Koo recently acknowledged that a lack of equipment and instructors has slowed attempts to professionalise reservist training. ‘I must honestly say that we need to quickly strengthen [training] as there is still a lot of room for improvement,’ he told the legislature in June.”

Further unpacking the implications of this, Shepherd and Chiang stated, “Taipei wants to create a professional backup force to support 155,000 active-duty soldiers. All Taiwanese men born in or after 2005 are required to enlist for a year of service, while about 2 million former soldiers are supposed to complete refresher training every two years.

“But officials have acknowledged being behind schedule with plans to teach reservists and draftees how to supplement front-line troops in the event of a war. Only 6 per cent of eligible conscripts – 6,936 people – took part in the newly implemented 12-month program this year. Most deferred military service to first attend university, meaning the 2005-born intake cohort won’t be fully trained until 2027,” they detailed.

This raises concerns ahead of the US presidential election in November and the potential for a second Trump administration, where former president Donald Trump has already stressed an increased “transactional” approach to the relationship between the two parties and America’s continued security support for the island democracy.

Shepherd and Chiang added, “Taiwan’s slow progress on boosting training concerns military experts in Washington and Taipei, who are urging authorities to move faster to deter Xi and prevent a war ... While President Biden has repeatedly said he would send the US military to defend Taiwan, Trump has made no such promises. Asked what he would do in an interview last month, Trump said that Taiwan was ‘9,500 miles away’ and should pay for American defence.”

The pair detailed the challenges, saying, “Taiwanese men who completed mandatory service within the past 12 years are theoretically called back for refresher training every second year, although in practice many attend far less frequently. Only a fifth of the reservists who went through refresher training last year completed the newly extended two-week course, with the majority doing only five or seven days.”

However it hasn’t been going to plan.

Overcoming a ’defeatist attitude’

Again, like Australia and many of our partners, Taiwan is grappling with a “defeatist attitude” that seems to be ingrained in the youth and to some extent, the bureaucracy, as they confront the challenges of a radically different regional and global order to the one they were promised through phenomenon like the “End of History”.

Highlighting this, Shepherd and Chiang stated, “Since taking office in May, Lai has vowed to press ahead with his predecessor’s reforms that will improve readiness and has warned the military to guard against a “defeatist” attitude, telling troops they cannot presume “the first battle will be the last battle” if China attacks...

“Lai also faces fierce pushback from the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang, which controls the legislature and has accused the ruling Democratic Progressive Party of trying to turn Taiwan into a ‘powder keg’,” the pair explained.

This has a major impact on the capacity of the Taiwanese government and people to endure and sustain combat operations over a protracted period of time in a war of attrition as is expected in the advent of any Chinese invasion from the mainland.

Quoting Michael Hunzeker, a retired Marine who studies military reform at George Mason University: “Taiwan’s reservists are going to be mobilising where the fight is happening, when the fight is happening,” Shepherd and Chiang added, “The island is patently not ready for that, according to people who have completed military training recently...

“Rising public concern about a conflict has left many in Taiwan asking themselves what they would do in a ‘Zero Day’” scenario and how far they should allow China’s invasion threat to infringe on daily life,” the pair added.

Conversely, these concerns are met with conflicting information by the Taiwanese public who frequently respond that “majority of Taiwanese support the decision to lengthen mandatory service, but that doesn’t mean they think training is a good use of time or public funds”.

If it all sounds a little familiar, don’t worry, it does to me also and it doesn’t bode well for either us or the Taiwanese.

Final thoughts

Australians are going to be asked to accept a number of uncomfortable realities in the coming years. First and foremost, we will have to accept that while the world is increasingly becoming “multipolar”, the Indo-Pacific, in particular, is rapidly becoming the most hotly contested region in the world.

Second, both the Australian public and our policymakers will have to accept that without a period of considered effort, investment and reform, or as I like to colloquially refer to it, our Rocky montage moment, current and future generations of Australians will be increasingly impoverished, living in a nation pushed around by the region’s now rising powers.

Recognising this array of challenges and opportunities, both the Australian public and its policymakers need to look beyond the myopic lens of short-termism that has traditionally dominated our diplomatic, strategic, and economic policy making since Federation.

The most important questions now become, when will we see a more detailed analysis and response to the challenges and opportunities facing Australia and when will we see both a narrative and strategy that better helps industry and the Australian public understand the challenges faced and opportunities we have presented before us?

As events continue to unfold throughout the region and China continues to throw its economic, political, and strategic weight around, can Australia afford to remain a secondary power, or does it need to embrace a larger, more independent role in an era of increasing great power competition?

Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia’s future role and position in the Indo-Pacific region and what you would like to see from Australia’s political leaders in terms of partisan and bipartisan agenda setting in the comments section below, or get in touch at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..