The frog in boiling water: Beijing’s increased antagonism leaves many in the West caught off guard

Standing around the barbeque is one of the greatest and most sacrosanct moments for any Aussie, particularly for men. It is almost comparable to the confessional seal, a place where all of the problems of the world are discussed and inevitably resolved, or at least in some way.

Over the weekend, while standing around the barbeque and enjoying a beer in the sun, one of my friends turned to me and asked, with a degree of concern in his voice, “Koops, what the hell is happening with China? Should we be worried?”

When I probed a little deeper, it became clearer that he was talking about the latest efforts of the Chinese Coast Guard to coerce the Philippines in and around the South China Sea, which is when a confronting realisation really hit me.

That realisation was that the majority of Australians have little to no understanding of just how precarious the world has become.

Now this is hardly their fault. For the majority of them, when I pushed a little deeper in order to better shape my response, expect and/or believe that the “experts” either elected or through the public service infrastructure should have the challenges sorted.

An entirely reasonable course of action when you consider the cost-of-living crisis, getting kids to school, juggling their relationships and work responsibilities and a myriad of other responsibilities in their day-to-day lives.

It was this added understanding that helped me tailor my response, which focused on Beijing’s efforts to coerce its neighbours either through political, economic or overt strategic efforts, Australia included.

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I also had to be careful not to pontificate or catastrophise with my response and spook the horses as it were, after all, the question implied a degree of trust in my knowledge and analysis.

So what did my response look like?

Building a basic understanding and an uncomfortable realisation

At the core of my response was explaining that in our part of the world in particular, Beijing was looking to address perceived historical wrongs, mainly those inflicted on it during the Century of Humiliation and that under Xi Jinping, China once again saw itself as the world’s true and historic power.

It was this view that prompted Beijing to become increasingly assertive and coercive in its actions towards regional neighbours and citing the Australian experience during COVID-19, my friends began to understand the implications, bringing me to the recent confrontation between the Philippines and China over the Sabina Shoal.

Explaining that this really wasn’t anything new from Beijing’s perspective prompted a response from my friend manning the barbeque, who asked, “Why don’t the Filipinos just fire at the Chinese Coast Guard and scare them off?”

It was then that it hit me, that was Beijing’s objective all along, get the Filipinos or one of their other neighbours to fire on the Chinese Coast Guard to justify and build consent for reprisals both at home and abroad, counting on the “uninformed” masses in Australia and across the West who, through no fault of their own, have become “low information” voters.

In framing China as the victim of aggression from either the Filipinos, or other Southeast Asian nations, Beijing could theoretically minimise the level of support for a democratic pushback by capitalising on the uninformed nature of Western populations.

Rounding out the cognitive war being waged against us is the increasing pervasive penetration of the public consciousness via mechanisms across social media that serve to further undermine the level of knowledge, understanding and engagement the average Aussie has with the world beyond their front door.

This only further amplifies what little information Australians get from their nightly news or during their daily commute when they are often exposed to little more than vacuous celebrity news, grotesque stunts and the latest in sports ball news.

Bringing me back to my conversation around the barbeque, where my response was, “Because that has the potential to land us in a war, and a war the likes of which we haven’t seen since the Second World War, so yes, I would be worried.”

I know, not exactly filling the “normies” with confidence, but it was then that I realised that those of us who have a voice also have a significant responsibility to fill the knowledge, narrative and information gap to help demystify the reality of our rapidly changing world order to drive home the challenges we face as a nation and people.

Final thoughts

As part of this responsibility, Australia’s strategic policy community also need to be helping expand the conversation away from the “doom and gloom” that dominates much of this conversation in the public consciousness.

We need to be actively presenting and promoting a plethora of solutions for the best to rise to the top and help inform our political decisionmakers with an engaged public with an idea and articulated plan for where they want the country to go beyond mindless four- or five-word slogans.

Taking into account the costs and implications, it is therefore easy to understand why so many Australians, both in the general public and within our decision-making circles, seem to have checked out and are quite happy to allow the nation to continue to limp along in mediocrity because, well, it is easier than having lofty ambitions.

If both Australian policymakers and the Australian public don’t snap out of the comforting security blanket that is the belief in the “End of History”, the nation will continue to rapidly face an uncomfortable and increasingly dangerous new reality, where we truly are no longer the masters of our own destiny.

All of this combines to form a rather confronting and disconcerting outcome for our long-term national security and one that requires remedying immediately if Australia is to be positioned to capitalise on the truly epoch-defining industrial, economic, political, and strategic shifts currently underway across the globe.

After all, how can we ask and reasonably expect Australians, particularly young Australians, to put the national interest ahead of their own when the nation doesn’t seem to account for their own interests, particularly when taken to the end of its logical extension, the national interest is at its core, the individual’s interest?

Ultimately, Australia and Australians face these two concurrent yet interconnected challenges, which stand as the greatest challenges of our age, so which way, Australia?

Do we want to be competitive, consequential and thriving, or do we want to be “steady and sturdy” in our managed decline?

Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia’s future role and position in the Indo-Pacific region and what you would like to see from Australia’s political leaders in terms of partisan and bipartisan agenda setting in the comments section below, or get in touch at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..