Losing faith: Almost half of young Aussies to leave in event of conflict

Australia, like many of its comparable nations across the Western world, is increasingly defined by an undercurrent of cultural and historic decline, self-loathing and dislocation.

This sentiment and the collapse of the “Australian Dream” of owning your own home, on a quarter acre block, with 2–3 kids and a job that allows you to take a holiday once a year, permeates the younger generations of Australians who, fundamentally, feel betrayed and lied to by their parents.

Conversely, older generations of Australians, particularly those from the post-Second World War baby boom and what can inexcusably be described as the Golden Age of Western civilisation, confront these younger generations as entitled, spoiled and uninterested in continuing the civilisation.

Now, of course, and perhaps most controversially, both sides have a point in their diagnosis. Where they often come to heated blows is in the treatment.

Front and centre of this debate is the expectation of many older generations, again, mainly the Boomers (who protested, sometimes violently against conscription, I will add), that young Australians should step forward to fight to protect the nation and its interests.

The counter-narrative popular among many young Australians is a mix of often competing, contradictory theories and revolutionary ideologies that stand anathema to any belief that Australia, as a nation, as a people and culture, is worthy of preservation and protection, let alone that they should continue to pay into a system that they will never really reap the benefits of.

Bringing me to recent polling and research conducted by the Institute for Public Affairs (IPA), titled Defending Australia’s way of life poll, in which they revealed startling and concerning responses from across key demographics of Australian society.

VIEW ALL

Daniel Wild, deputy executive director at the Institute of Public Affairs, best summarised the findings, saying, “It is deeply concerning that less than half of Australians would stay and fight for their country.”

This stands in stark contrast to the lessons of Ukraine and patriotic rallying of the Ukrainian people that we have borne witness to over the past two years since the Russian invasion. But what else did the polling reveal?

Too ashamed to fight or more than meets the eye?

Despite the now well-documented challenges to not only Australia’s national security and sovereignty that have become increasingly visible to the Australian public, it continues to have little impact on the minds of young Australians in particular, and the Australian public more broadly.

The research conducted by the IPA detailed this, revealing that across all age groups, less than half of Australians said they would defend their nation, with a growing number saying they would rather flee, which when broken down further reveal 46 per cent of Australians (equal to March 2022) would stay and fight, while, 30 per cent (up 2 per cent in March 2022) would leave, with 24 per cent unsure (down 2 per cent in March 2022) of their next steps.

Breaking this data down on key demographics, specifically, the 18–24, 25–34 and 35–44 age groups, we see that in the case of the first group, only 27 per cent (a 5-point drop in 2022) would stay and fight, while in the 25–34 age group, 42 per cent (a 7-point jump in 2022) and in the 35–44 demographic, 48 per cent (a 4-point jump in 2022) would stay and fight.

Where things get really concerning, however, is when those same demographics are asked if they would leave, with 48 per cent (up 8 points in 2022) of the 18–24 age group saying they would leave the country rather than fight, for the 25–34 age group, 38 per cent (no change) said they would leave, while in the 35–44 demographic, we saw 31 per cent (a drop of 3 per cent) say they would leave the country.

To Wild’s eye, this decline in Australian patriotism can best be laid at the feet of a number of institutions, saying, “After years of relentless attack on our values by the cultural and media elite, a growing number of young Australians are now so ashamed of themselves, and their country, that they would rather flee Australia than stay and fight for it.”

Going further, Wild added, “It tells you all you need to know about the values our education system, including the national curriculum, are instilling in young Australians if almost half of them would rather flee than stay and fight for their country if we were under attack ... The deceit which forms the basis of the national education curriculum must be replaced with the truth that Australia is one the most tolerant, free, and democratic nations on earth – and that it is worth fighting for.”

But this is just part of the challenges we face, particularly as generations of young Australians struggle to find meaningful, rewarding and viable long-term employment opportunities, largely as a result of the hollowing out of Australia’s industrial base, marking the nation’s shift to little more than a mine, farm and school for the rest of the world.

Compounding these issues is the Australian housing market, the collapse of the “Australian Dream” as an attainable goal and the constant debate back and forth around supply versus demand, with special interests like the Property Council of Australia and Universities Australia dominating much of the debate often completely removed from the lived reality faced by young Australians.

Highlighting this reality is tech entrepreneur Matt Barrie, who stated, “In Sydney, houses can no longer be bought by earnings from wages. As of May, it takes 46 years to save not just for the average house, but the average house deposit. So if you start saving at the age of 20, then by the age of 66 you’ll have saved enough money not to pay off the mortgage, but pay a deposit.”

This obviously has an impact on the investment young Australians feel in the nation, with a direct correlation on the sense of patriotism and how many young Australians are willing to step forward to defend their nation, something we have seen with continued failures by Defence Force Recruiting to meet recruitment targets year-on-year.

Ultimately, this only serves to compound the intergenerational animosity and tension, as older Australians have an unreasonable expectation that young Australians and, indeed, younger people across the developed world should lay down their lives to protect and expand an order they have no material investment and, even worse, have no trust in.

Equally, the reminder by older generations that “things didn’t use to be this way” only serves to compound the resentment, economic, political and cultural dislocation felt by young people both in Australia and across the Western world.

I know I have asked this question before, but how can we reasonably ask young Australians to step forward and defend a nation that they no longer have any material stake in and for a nation that no longer feels like home?

Righting the ship

One of the most important question becomes, what has changed over the past two decades to drive this socio-cultural change and impact the confidence and belief in their nations?

Well, it’s a bit of a mixed bag.

As previously mentioned, the inability of younger generations to own a meaningful slice of the nation through a family home, coupled with declining economic opportunities, particularly in Australia – where we have progressively seen the nation transition to a “knowledge” and services economy which faces wiping out millions of jobs through the increasing proliferation of artificial intelligence and deflationary pressure on wages as a result of mass migration among others – only serve to reinforce the belief that our system has failed.

Highlighting this confluence of factors in the Australian context is David Llewellyn-Smith, the chief strategist with MB Super and Nucleus Wealth, who explained that the Treasurer favoured mechanisms such as increased migration to increase the tax base, while various “sectors” of the economy favour it for their own bottom line.

“That’s at the cost to the vast majority of Australians ... The winners of that immigration model – even in a per capita recession – are the banks, retailers and developers, and if you put those three together, you get what is known as the growth lobby, and they push for the model to continue because it’s good for them,” Llewellyn-Smith said.

The impact of this papering over the cracks inherent in the national economy is reinforced by comments made by AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver, who explained: “We’re pumping more people in, but we’re not producing more stuff per person ... We’re inflating our economy by pumping more people in, but it’s not giving us growth in living standards per person – we’re actually going backwards, and also productivity is going backwards.”

Rectifying these issues should be the first step in righting the ship and rebuilding confidence, trust and investment in the nation for young Australians, while overhauling the national curriculum as posited by Wild will round out the path forward and return the nation to our natural equilibrium of “fair go” politics and public policy.

Final thoughts

Australians seem reluctant at best or indeed, even oblivious at worst that the world is increasingly becoming “multipolar” and our own home, the Indo-Pacific, in particular, is rapidly becoming the most hotly contested region in the world.

Declining economic opportunity, coupled with the rapidly deteriorating global and regional balance of power and the increased politicisation of every aspect of contemporary life, only serves to exacerbate the very reality of disconnection, apathy, and helplessness felt by many Australians.

This attitude is only serving to be compounded and creates a growing sentiment that we are speeding towards a predestined outcome, thus disempowering the Australian people and, to a lesser extent, policymakers as we futilely confront seemingly insurmountable challenges with little-to-no benefit and at a high-risk/reward calculation.

Taking into account the costs and implications, it is therefore easy to understand why so many Australians, both in the general public and within our decision-making circles, seem to have checked out and are quite happy to allow the nation to continue to limp along in mediocrity because, well, it is easier than having lofty ambitions.

If both Australian policymakers and the Australian public don’t snap out of the comforting security blanket that is the belief in the “End of History”, the nation will continue to rapidly face an uncomfortable and increasingly dangerous new reality, where we truly are no longer the masters of our own destiny.

All of this combines to form a rather confronting and disconcerting outcome for our long-term national security and one that requires remedying immediately if Australia is to be positioned to capitalise on the truly epoch-defining industrial, economic, political, and strategic shifts currently underway across the globe.

After all, how can we ask and reasonably expect Australians, particularly young Australians, to put the national interest ahead of their own when the nation doesn’t seem to account for their own interests, particularly when taken to the end of its logical extension, the national interest is at its core, the individual’s interest?

Ultimately, Australia and Australians face these two concurrent yet interconnected challenges, which stand as the greatest challenges of our age, so which way, Australia?

Do we want to be competitive, consequential and thriving, or do we want to be “steady and sturdy” in our managed decline?

Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia’s future role and position in the Indo-Pacific region and what you would like to see from Australia’s political leaders in terms of partisan and bipartisan agenda setting in the comments section below, or get in touch at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..