Slow on the uptake: Growing Australian recognition that overstretched US can’t do all the heavy lifting

Human history is littered with the bones of once mighty empires that have, through conflict, disease, natural disaster or political strife, risen and fallen across the globe.

From Persia and Egypt, to Rome, France and more recently the British Empire and the Soviet Union, the rise and fall of great powers and their regional or global empires have characterised the nature of international relations and strategic affairs since time immemorial.

It is an indisputable fact that much of the peace, prosperity, and stability of the post-Second World War paradigm came as a direct result of the US-led global order.

By putting an end to the often-ancient rivalries between competing imperial powers, the United States, through its post-war economic and strategic might, coupled with immense political capital, guaranteed the freedom of the seas and promoted an explosion of free trade across the globe, paving the way for the modern, interconnected global economy and period of innovation we enjoy today.

Through this might, both conventional and strategic arsenal, the United States established what has become known as a “strategic umbrella”, where for greater input into their ally’s security policy and easier access to their markets, the United States would do the heavy lifting on the global geostrategic stage.

Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada, Western Europe, and parts of Asia were the major beneficiaries of this new “globalised world” and the radical new approach to global power relations which would be ironed out at the Bretton Woods Conference and the formation of multilateral organisations like the United Nations, World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund.

Yet seemingly afraid of, or being unwilling to learn the trends of history, the period of jubilation that resulted in the idea of the “Peace Dividend” and the “End of History” phenomenon that swept across the Western World would seemingly plant the seeds of our own decline.

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For Australia in particular, a nation that for the large part of its recent history has been geographically isolated from the major epoch-defining conflagrations of the 19th and, more decisively, the 20th centuries, this period of comforting stability has paved the way for Australia’s existing malaise and delay when it comes to national security.

Now, our chickens have come home to roost.

Yet both Australia’s leaders and our media, as the key conduit of communication for much of the public and the Australian public, are only just coming to the uncomfortable reality that America’s capacity to defend the post-Second World War order is becoming increasingly contested in the newly emerging multipolar world.

Highlighting this is Chris Ulhmann in a piece for The Weekend Australian, titled Stretched US can’t carry us in a world of chaos, in which he confronts this new paradigm.

Waking from an all too comfortable slumber

Arguably since the end of Australia’s involvement in the Vietnam conflict, the nation has rapidly and decisively retreated to the comforting security blanket provided by the US and it’s “Pax Americana” construct.

As a result, large portions of the Australian public, our media, bureaucratic institutions and, indeed, our political leaders have indulged in the aforementioned “End of History” paradigm and, as a result, have defaulted to our tried-and-true strategy of deference to our “great and powerful friend”, leaving them to do the bulk of the heavy lifting both in the Indo-Pacific and more broadly on the global stage.

Seeking to correct the narrative, Chris Ulhmann has set the scene, stating, “The US is now engaged in another Middle Eastern war, is supporting Ukraine’s fight against Russia and is sparring with China in the Pacific. An overstretched and distracted Washington is being pushed by allies in Kyiv and Jerusalem and tested by adversaries in Beijing, Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang.

“This is an exceptionally dangerous moment and it doesn’t take a vivid imagination to see this so-called new cold war getting hot. It is a useful exercise to try to see the world the way our adversaries do, and now may be a good time to reflect on the words of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.”

Yet if one was to ask the average Aussie on the street about our national security, our major challenges and the capacity of Australia and its allies to defend themselves, most would be forgiven for responding with a quizzical look on their face and a relatively non-committal and confusing answer.

This state of societal slumber and disconnection from the rapidly deteriorating global and regional strategic environment becomes even more concerning when one considers the level of US military support being absorbed throughout the Middle East and in eastern Europe, to the detriment of our own region.

Uhlmann detailed this, saying, “On the Middle Eastern front the US has already fired shots in a growing regional war, twice defending Israel against Iranian missiles with destroyers based in the eastern Mediterranean. It also has attacked Houthi targets in Yemen using aircraft and warships.

“Washington has now deployed an advanced missile defence system to Israel, supported by 100 soldiers. This adds to a formidable military presence in the region of at least a dozen warships – including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group – four US Air Force fighter jet squadrons and about 40,000 personnel. The USS Georgia, a nuclear-powered submarine capable of carrying more than 150 Tomahawk cruise missiles, also is lurking in waters within striking distance of Tehran.

“The fact we even know there is a nuclear submarine in the theatre is unusual. It’s all part of America’s ‘iron-clad commitment’ to defend Israel, but the problem is it has lost control of events. Jerusalem is acting, Washington is reacting,” he explained.

Shifting to Europe, Uhlmann added, “On the European front, President Volodymyr Zelensky is pressing Biden to allow Ukrainian forces to use long-range strike missiles against Russia. The US has baulked at this, concerned that it will provoke Putin into escalating that war.”

But what does all this mean for our reality closer to home?

Well, Uhlmann explained this in a very succinct manner, saying, “On the Pacific front this week China conducted drills that encircled Taiwan, just days after the democratic island marked its National Day. The Chinese military said the drills included a ‘key port blockade’, severing Taiwan’s maritime lifeline for imports of trade, food and energy.

“And, again, a Chinese ship has sideswiped a Philippine vessel in the South China Sea, as Beijing aggressively pursues its illegal annexation of waters far from its shores.”

What this all means is that as the United States finds itself increasingly distracted and preoccupied with the ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, which are responsible for absorbing significant American military manpower and materiel at a time when Beijing is increasingly provocative in the region.

What this translates to is an increasingly precarious position for Australia, particularly at a time when our own military modernisation and recapitalisation is still, for all intents and purposes, in its infancy (despite beginning at least conceptually as far back as 2009).

Equally, for the Australian economy, this poses major risks to our national economic prosperity, security and stability at a time when domestically, the public are grappling with a cost-of-living crisis, declining economic opportunity and a myriad of other related factors.

The solution? For Uhlmann, he called for the nation to urgently awaken from the comforting, post-Cold War slumber, saying, “Anyone looking at what’s happening in the world and our region at the moment should be able to read the signs of the times. Australia should be urgently developing the capability to defend itself, understanding that the US is not going to be able to carry us as well as everyone else.

“Yet we move with sloth-like steps in a world that appears to have hit fast forward on the clash of civilisations.”

Final thoughts

Importantly, in this era of renewed competition between autarchy and democracy, this is an uncomfortable conversation that needs to be had in the open with the Australian people, as ultimately, they will be called upon to help implement it, to consent to the direction, and to defend it should diplomacy fail.

Our economic resilience, capacity, and competitiveness will prove equally as critical to success in the new world power paradigm as that of the United States, the United Kingdom, or Europe, and we need to begin to recognise the opportunities presented before us.

Expanding and enhancing the opportunities available to Australians while building critical economic resilience, and as a result, deterrence to economic coercion, should be the core focus of the government because only when our economy is strong can we ensure that we can deter aggression towards the nation or our interests.

This also requires a greater degree of transparency and a culture of innovation and collaboration between the nation’s strategic policymakers, elected officials, and the constituents they represent and serve – equally, this approach will need to entice the Australian public to once again invest in and believe in the future direction of the nation.

Additionally, Australia will need to have an honest conversation about how we view ourselves and what our own ambitions are. Is it reasonable for Australia to position itself as a “middle” or “regional” power in this rapidly evolving geopolitical environment? Equally, if we are going to brand ourselves as such, shouldn’t we aim for the top tier to ensure we get the best deal for ourselves and our future generations?

If we are going to emerge as a prosperous, secure, and free nation in the new era of great power competition, it is clear we will need break the shackles of short-termism and begin to think far more long term, to the benefit of current and future generations of Australians.

Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia’s future role and position in the Indo-Pacific region and what you would like to see from Australia’s political leaders in terms of partisan and bipartisan agenda setting in the comments section below, or get in touch at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..