As VP Vance links freedom of speech to US military assistance, could a Trump presidency kill AUKUS?

As the Australian government struggles to enact social media bans for minors and regulate the dissemination of disinformation and misinformation online, its efforts could lead to a free speech showdown with the United States under Donald Trump – with possibly far-reaching impacts on Australia's defensive posture and alliances.

In a recent interview, Vice President-Elect JD Vance warned that the US might soon look to link its military support with its views on freedom of speech.

“NATO wants us to continue being a good participant in this military alliance – why don’t you respect American values and respect free speech?” Vance said.

“It’s insane that we would support a military alliance if that military alliance isn’t going to be pro-free speech. I think we can do both, but we have to say that American power comes with certain strings attached, and one of those is: respect free speech.”

While Vance was directly addressing NATO, it’s not a long bow to pull that a similar string may be attached to the long-term alliance between Australia and the US, particularly when it comes to the current AUKUS partnership.

In fact, that’s the very question that One Nation Senator Malcolm Roberts asked of Brian Marlow, a campaigner with the conservative advocacy group CitizenGO. During this week’s Senate inquiry into the Combatting Misinformation and Disinformation Bill, Roberts asked Marlow directly if the Bill might be “likely to undermine AUKUS?”.

“Yes it is, and the outcome of what President Trump has said effectively makes this Bill null and void and dead in the water,” Marlow said.

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Of course, coming from a man who is also the Campaign Director of Legalise Vaping Australia and president of the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance – hardly expert bodies in international defence policy – Marlow’s belief is hardly backed by expertise, but rather by right wing dogma.

That said, when it comes to navigating local issues, Labor’s Ed Husic is looking to find a safe middle ground. When asked recently about Trump’s promises to repeal regulations around AI development and his plans to combat censorship and any interference with free speech, Husic said his government would seek to “harmonise where we can and localise where we have to”.

“That is, we will work with other [countries] where we absolutely can find common ground, to give people the assurance in the Australian context about the use of AI, we will take the steps necessary so people have the confidence to use it.”

Speaking on social media regulations, Husic added that he believes Australians “want us to be able to deal with issues in a way that reflects our national priorities. And so I think you’ll see we continue to do what we have to do”.

But if the US demands that Australia bend its knee to the US view on free speech and censorship in order to remain a military partner, it will be interesting to see just how far harmony can take the government.

Is AUKUS cactus anyway?

The shadow of a possible free speech brouhaha that could have implications for the US defence relationship comes as former foreign minister and New South Wales premier Bob Carr weighed in with his own opinions on the future of the AUKUS relationship.

In an interview on ABC’s Radio National on November 12, Carr expressed a particular lack of confidence that Australia would ever see nuclear submarines of its own – a fear that is, apparently, widely shared in the nation’s capital.

“In fact,” Carr opined, “scepticism about it is more widespread than is being admitted publicly in Canberra security circles and elsewhere.”

“We’ve reached a point – and it could be under Trump, it could be under the president who follows Trump – where a Secretary of Defence will say to the president, we simply cannot achieve [our] targets… and we can’t peel off, from our order of battle, attack-class submarines that are needed in the competition with China to give to Australia,” Carr said.

“It’s almost inevitable that that is going to happen, and we will be offered a new view of AUKUS, which means American attack-class subs being stationed on a virtually permanent basis in Australian ports.

“One of the prizes you pay for being such a compliant, non-argumentative ally is that you get taken for granted, and will be taken for granted on this when we are presented [with it] in a few years’ time… with a reinterpretation or re-weaving of the Aukus narrative.”

Predicting the future of AUKUS becomes even harder given President-elect Trump’s pick for Secretary of Defence. The current SecDef, Lloyd J. Austin, has been glowing in his support for the alliance.

Speaking in London during a meeting with his Australian and UK counterparts in September, Austin spoke of the “extraordinary strength of our AUKUS partnership” and spoke of the importance of “ensuring that Australia has a sovereign nuclear-powered submarine capability”.

But Trump’s nominee is a 44-year-old Fox News host who served as a junior officer in the National Guard. How Pete Hegseth, assuming he succeeds in his nomination to the role, will work with his UK and Australian counterparts is impossible to fathom.

Asked about the possible appointment in an interview on Sky News, Richard Marles welcomed the appointment, saying “I really look forward to the opportunity of meeting Pete Hegseth and of working closely with him, as I have with Lloyd Austin, who I'll be seeing later this week”.

“I mean, so much of the way in which our relationship – our full bilateral relationship between Australia and America – plays out happens through the prism of defence,” Marles said.

On a positive note, however, Trump’s pick as Secretary of State, Senator Mark Rubio, has previously spoken in favour of the alliance and the delivery of the Virginia-class hulls, despite a slow-down in production, telling the Financial Review earlier in the year that “I don’t think that in any way undermines the commitment that we have, particularly given our shared concerns about the threats in the Indo-Pacific from an increasingly aggressive China.”

Despite AUKUS being one of the most significant defence investments in Australia’s history, it looks like we may have to wait a few months to see if any more strings are attached to the AUKUS alliance, or if the goalposts are moved entirely.