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Australia must make an early and determined contact with the Trump administration, according to US policy experts speaking at a conference in Sydney today.
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US policy experts met to discuss the expected approach of the incoming US administration headed by Donald Trump, during the Sydney International Strategy Forum hosted by the United States Studies Centre on 20 November.
The forum featured topics regarding the future of American leadership and a contested Asia region.
US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, speaking via virtual link at the conference, said Australia must make an effort to get in early with the new administration if it wants to be successful.
It’s clear that many countries are standing back (currently) and taking a “we might not get noticed” approach to the new US administration, this will not work, he said.
Australia must make early, often and determined contact with the Trump administration in order to make business-style deals early (and get the most benefit), Campbell said.
During the forum, Business Roundtable president and chief operating officer Kristen Silverberg confirmed that future US trade negotiations were expected to be taking a “looking outside the box” approach more than previous administrations.
“Tariffs are going to play a large role in the new administration [according to indications from incoming US president Trump],” she said.
It was speculated at the conference that the new US administration would likely push for a universal baseline tariff of 10 per cent (with some exceptions based on negotiation with individual countries) in an attempt to bring manufacturing factories back into the US domestic market.
In addition, it was speculated that a tariff could be imposed on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) around 60 per cent, potentially crippling US–PRC relations and possibly starting an international trade war.
“We can expect to see more arm-twisting around defence spending [in regard to NATO] to move from 2 per cent to 3 per cent of GDP defence spending. This could put a strain on US leadership and Europe’s relationship,” Silverberg said.
“However, there is an opportunity here to cut deals early with a US administration that has a high-risk tolerance.”
Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia Heino Klinck, speaking at the conference, said the new administration would likely be taking a more direct, business-like approach.
“Trade deficit and [percentage of GDP] defence budget – I can 100 per cent guarantee that those 2 percentages will be in Trump’s head when he meets with an international leader,” he said.
Australia’s current defence spending percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is 2.1 per cent.
