Conducting a national SWOT analysis to better respond to a future of disruption, contest and conflict

Since the end of World War II, Australia’s economic, political, and strategic interactions with the world have undergone profound transformations. Emerging from the war as a middle power closely aligned with the US-led world order, Australia was quick to embrace multilateralism through institutions like the United Nations and Bretton Woods framework, which underscored its enduring commitment to a liberal-democratic international order.

Economically, the post-war era saw Australia transition from a reliance on British markets to engaging with Asia, initially driven by Japan’s rise as an industrial powerhouse and now, more recently, China’s emergence as a global economic leader, which has increasingly seen the nation economic and security policies come into conflict with one another as Australia continued its support for the US-led “rules-based global order”.

The “End of History” thesis, proposed by political scientist Francis Fukuyama in 1989, profoundly influenced global and Australian policymaking. The idea that liberal democracy represented the endpoint of ideological evolution resonated strongly with Australia’s strategic orientation during the post-Cold War era.

However, policymakers assumed that economic interdependence and liberal democratic values would lead to greater global stability, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, we now know that this belief, which disproportionally underpinned Australia’s efforts to integrate into regional multilateral structures like APEC and ASEAN, is now not necessarily a reality.

Driven in large part by the rise of revisionist autocratic great powers like China and Russia, it has not only challenged this assumption but also dramatically exposed the vulnerabilities inherent in Australia’s economic and strategic policies.

In the Indo-Pacific, China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea and its economic coercion of Australia throughout the COVID-19 pandemic highlight the fragility of a rules-based order and has been reflected globally, as the erosion of democratic norms and the resurgence of authoritarianism test the resilience of liberal democratic ideals.

For Australia, these shifts necessitate recalibrating policies to strengthen alliances, diversify economic partnerships, and bolster our national resilience; however, in order to do so, we need to conduct a comprehensive and public assessment, analysis and conversation about the nation’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, or, for those familiar with the acronym, SWOT.

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Now, yes, I am fully aware that Professor John Blaxland in 2019 said: “A number of pundits warn we face looming environmental catastrophe. Yet others say it is great power contestation that presents the most imminent existential threat, with the prospect of thermonuclear war a real danger. Others hold to the view that violent extremist terrorism presents the most pressing challenge. So, which group is right? And how can we possibly discern between them?”

This brings us to today and raises an important question: what does a contemporary and comprehensive SWOT analysis look like for Australia over the next decade? Well, I turned to ChatGPT to get at least a high level.

For reference, I posed the following question to ChatGPT: “Looking at economic/industrial, political, demographic, cultural and strategic/military conduct a thorough SWOT Analysis for Australia as a nation for the next decade.”

Fair warning: I do apologise if this seems like a stream of consciousness, but nevertheless, it is important that we begin to have this conversation.

S – Strengths

Regarding our national “strengths”, it is important to recognise that what may have traditionally been considered a “strength” may not necessarily be considered one today, particularly as the world transitions from a monopolar world, one in which the United States was responsible for dominating the global order and commons, towards a multipolar world, with multiple competing centres of economic, political and strategic power.

Recognising, one of the first such strengths identified when I posed the question to ChatGPT was the strength and stability of Australia’s national economy and the vast mineral and energy reserves of the Australian landmass, coupled with the robust nature and global dominance of Australia’s agricultural sectors, respectively.

These “traditional” strengths have served as the backbone of the national economy dating back to the earliest days of colonisation and have ensured the enduring stability of the economy, while underpinning the nation’s economic stability during times of regional and global economic turmoil; however, the dependence on these sectors, coupled with the rise of the “knowledge economy” dominated largely by “services”, including higher education and housing speculation has left major holes and raises questions about the true resilience of the Australian economy.

This has been further reinforced in recent years, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw the rapid rise of economic nationalism across the world as nations scrambled to secure and provide their own personal protective equipment and medical supplies and, more broadly, secure their own national security and interest.

Of course, it is at the more granular level at which this lack of economic complexity and diversity impacts the strength and long-term stability of the Australian economy (more on that later), but broadly speaking, the “stability” of the national economy can, at least for the time being, be considered a strength that should continue into the medium term.

Bringing us to the stability and robust nature of the nation’s political system, for all the complaints levelled against it (mostly from disengaged and disenfranchised Australians), the enduring stability of the nation’s Westminster, or Washminster (depending on who you ask) system of government is a source of immense national strength.

Flowing from this, we see the nation’s support of and position within the post-Second World War global order and the international political organs and institutions like the United Nations, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and International Criminal Court, which reaffirm the nation’s role in the post-war order and serve to underpin the nation’s multilateral diplomatic and economic relationships like the Trans-Pacific Partnership, G20, Quad, and AUKUS.

Australia’s diplomatic stability and engagement directly support Australia’s complex web of alliances and strategic partnerships, along with the high-technology nature of the Australian Defence Force and its growing levels of interoperability and interchangeability with the US and allied nations throughout the Indo-Pacific and more broadly across the globe seemingly provide a robust level of military power.

These “hard power” metrics are reinforced by Australia’s considerable “soft power” through its cultural exports, open and robust tourist economy, along with its multicultural society that has steadily grown since the post-Second World War years to see the nation become one of the world’s most highly successful multicultural societies.

As a result of this, we have seen a shift in the nation’s demographics, driven in large part by an explosion of what ChatGPT describes as “young population growth” and “foreign investment”, both temporary and permanent over the last decade at least, driven by record migration inflow, particularly immediately following the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, as previously stated, not everything that has traditionally been considered a strength continues to remain so in this renewed era of great power competition and multipolarity, where the lines between traditional conflict and competition are increasingly blurred and our potential rivals and adversaries have already demonstrated a willingness to engage in a host of “whole-of-nation” and indeed, “whole-of-society” efforts to lay us low.

This brings us conveniently to Australia’s “weaknesses”.

W – Weaknesses

Interestingly, or perhaps concerningly, there is a growing amount of overlap between the areas of “strength” that are now falling under the “weakness” category in Australia’s SWOT analysis, with some being well documented and others, emerging as significant challenges to our nation’s future stability security and prosperity into the next decade and beyond.

Beginning with the state of the national economy and industrial base, a now well-documented national shame, that has seen a steady decline in the economic complexity, diversity and competitiveness from an onset in the 1990s and steadily accelerating through the early to mid-2000s, before hitting the stratosphere in the 2010s, as Australia, like many comparable nations, rapidly doubled down on the euphoric waves of globalisation post-Cold War.

This has seen the steady domination of Australia’s economy by the resources, energy, agriculture and services sectors has seen the nation increasingly dependent on our main strategic challenge, in particular, the People’s Republic of China, while also undermining our national and natural comparative advantages.

As a result, we have seen Australia essentially in a state of economic free fall when compared to our international competitors; for example, Australia is now ranked 93rd in the world (behind well-known industrial powerhouses like Uganda, Kazakhstan, Trinidad and Tobago, and Bosnia and Herzegovina), according to the Harvard Growth Lab’s Country Rankings Country & Product Complexity.

This dependence on resource-hungry rising powers, like China and India, equally leaves the overall health and stability of the Australian economy at the mercy of the ebbs and flows of international demand, and, critically, competition from nations with significantly lower regulatory, industrial relations, human capital and investment hurdles and restrictions that disproportionally impact Western economies and Australia, in particular.

Of course, none of this accounts for the geopolitical, strategic and security risks associated with dependence on rising powers that are actively engaging in efforts to establish a parallel global economic, political and strategic order, and nations that actively engage in economic warfare and coercion when questioned.

Further undermining the nation’s economic strength, vitality, and competitiveness is our lacklustre infrastructure investment, outside of multibillion-dollar transport infrastructure investments designed to pack more people into our rapidly overcrowding major cities like Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth, that have rapidly accelerated the ravages of inflation further undermining the economic health, vitality and long-term stability of the nation and the individual Australian.

This has served to establish these population centres as a major resource and capital black holes, as governments across all levels struggle to keep pace with the infrastructure and services requirements needed to accommodate the record levels of population growth, especially in the last half-decade, to the detriment of outer metropolitan and regional areas across the nation.

In light of this, imagine the sort of infrastructure we could invest in if we didn’t have to constantly plough vast sums of capital into infrastructure in our major cities, imagine being able to unlock the vast and unused volumes of water that fall across northern Australia every year during the wet season to transform western NSW, Queensland, and northern Victoria to increase our agricultural production capacity and enhance our economic diversity.

Yet despite the continued investment in infrastructure in these major cities, we have only seen the continued rise of congestion, increased waiting times for critical services, over development with corresponding impacts on the environment, our domestic population growth has rapidly plummeted, as the cost of living (even outside the current cost-of-living challenges) continues to disproportionally impact Australians.

Don’t believe me?

Well, take a look at the rapidly plummeting per capita gross domestic product levels that are ravaging the “in-the-pocket” wealth of Australians, which has seen the nation in a per-capita recession officially for the last six consecutive quarters, but realistically has been the case for the last decade (at least, despite what the data actually says) and correspondingly has a significant detrimental impact on the long-term demographics of the nation, yet another major weakness.

In fact, ask your average mid-career Australian whether they feel better off today than they did five or 10 years ago, my safe bet would be that the general consensus is an overwhelming and resounding no.

Adding further fuel to the fire, we have seen and repeatedly been told for that matter that Australia, like many Western nations, is grappling with an ageing population crisis that has medium and long-term impacts on the stability, prosperity, diversity and competitiveness of the national economy as ever-increasing amounts of capital are diverted to cater to our ageing population.

As a result, Australia has seen an explosion in the “care economy”, which has seen an ever-increasing proportion of government funding and corresponding employment vacancies for big government programs like the National Disability Insurance Scheme or NDIS, which, for example, as seen a third of jobs “created” over the last year directly linked to the NDIS.

Just for reference, on the current trajectory, the NDIS has a $42 billion budget in the 2023–24 financial year, that has helped propel federal government spending to near-record levels as a share of GDP, with the Australian government actuary warns the program is on track to cost $125 billion a year by 2034.

Hardly the sign of a healthy, vibrant or productive economy capable of surviving and thriving in the new era of multipolarity and great power competition.

Of course, this disproportionally impacts younger Australians and their ability to have families of their own, serving to dramatically impact the national fertility rate, something highlighted by Australian entrepreneur and economist Matt Barrie, who said: “Population momentum typically continues for a generation (25 to 30 years). Any momentum that Australia had from the pre-1970s higher fertility period has largely played out, and the cost-of-living crisis certainly isn’t improving fertility levels ...

“In the December quarter of 2023, Australia’s births were down 6.4 per cent year on year, despite a 2.5 per cent increase in total population. Government policies are destroying the ability for young Australians to not just own a home, but also destroying their ability to have kids,” Barrie said, further citing Australian government data.

This brings us in a roundabout way back to the uncomplex state of the national economy and, in particular, the increasing overrepresentation of housing speculation in the valuation of the nation’s wealth and the “imagined” wealth of Australians.

If this sounds like a doom loop, don’t worry; you’re not alone, and, unfortunately, I am only going to make that realisation worse: data provided by HSBC demonstrates that for every 10 per cent increase in house prices, there is a corresponding 1.3 per cent decline in a nation’s birth rate and only serves to exacerbate the debt burden felt by Australian households, now the second-most indebted in the world behind Switzerland.

To make matters worse, all of these factors come before we get to the state of the nation’s military, national security preparedness and holistic national resilience capabilities, which are, for lack of better words, dismal, despite the rhetoric from both sides of the political divide.

I won’t dive further into those because they are, by now, very well documented and understood; however, it is safe to say that the Australian Defence Force as it stands, despite the “record” levels of investment earmarked and outlined in the 2023 Defence Strategic Review and supporting 2024 National Defence Strategy and reprioritised, restructured 2024 Integrated Investment Program.

Hardly a pretty or optimistic picture I am painting; I am well aware.

Final thoughts

In the next part of this short series, I will be taking a look at the “opportunities” and the “threats” components of our national SWOT analysis to better understand the trajectory of Australia over the next decade.

As Australia faces this era of renewed competition between autarchy and democracy, this is an uncomfortable conversation that needs to be had in the open with the Australian people, as ultimately, they will be called upon to help implement it, to consent to the direction, and to defend it should diplomacy fail.

Our economic resilience, capacity, and competitiveness will prove equally as critical to success in the new world power paradigm as that of the United States, the United Kingdom, or Europe, and we need to begin to recognise the opportunities presented before us.

Expanding and enhancing the opportunities available to Australians while building critical economic resilience, and as a result, deterrence to economic coercion, should be the core focus of the government because only when our economy is strong can we ensure that we can deter aggression towards the nation or our interests.

This also requires a greater degree of transparency and a culture of innovation and collaboration between the nation’s strategic policymakers, elected officials, and the constituents they represent and serve – equally, this approach will need to entice the Australian public to once again invest in and believe in the future direction of the nation.

Additionally, Australia will need to have an honest conversation about how we view ourselves and what our own ambitions are. Is it reasonable for Australia to position itself as a “middle” or “regional” power in this rapidly evolving geopolitical environment? Equally, if we are going to brand ourselves as such, shouldn’t we aim for the top tier to ensure we get the best deal for ourselves and our future generations?

If we are going to emerge as a prosperous, secure, and free nation in the new era of great power competition, it is clear we will need to break the shackles of short-termism and begin to think far more long term, to the benefit of current and future generations of Australians.

Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia’s future role and position in the Indo-Pacific region and what you would like to see from Australia’s political leaders in terms of partisan and bipartisan agenda setting in the comments section below, or get in touch at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..