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Fuel and energy security has rapidly emerged in the public consciousness as one of the most critical and indeed pressing vulnerabilities of Australia. Now, recently released freedom-of-information (FOI) documents have revealed just how precarious and encompassing our situation truly is.
Fuel security is a cornerstone of national resilience and economic stability, particularly in a world increasingly shaped by volatile geopolitical landscapes. For Australia, a nation heavily reliant on imported fuel, ensuring adequate reserves to meet domestic demand during crises has become a critical priority.
Recognising this, the International Energy Agency (IEA), of which Australia is a member, mandates that member countries maintain emergency fuel reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net oil imports. These reserves act as a safeguard against supply disruptions, supporting national energy security and maintaining economic continuity during global crises.
However, Australia has faced ongoing challenges in meeting this requirement, with its declining domestic refining capacity and heavy dependence on international supply chains leaving the nation vulnerable to external shocks.
The decline in Australia’s fuel security comes at a time when the Indo-Pacific region is witnessing rising geopolitical tensions. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent shockwaves through global energy markets, driving up fuel prices and disrupting supply chains. For Australia, the ripple effects highlighted the risks associated with its reliance on fuel imports, with approximately 90 per cent of its liquid fuel needs sourced from overseas.
Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict in Gaza and broader instability in the Middle East – a key global oil-producing region – further exacerbate the uncertainty surrounding energy security. These developments underscore the critical need for Australia to bolster its fuel reserves and enhance its energy resilience.
The implications of declining fuel security for Australia are far-reaching. Disruptions to fuel supply could paralyse transport networks, hinder emergency response capabilities, and severely impact industries ranging from agriculture to manufacturing.
Moreover, Australia’s strategic position in the Indo-Pacific places it at the heart of an increasingly contested region, where rising tensions between major powers such as China and the United States have further underscored the importance of reliable energy access. As regional dynamics shift, maintaining robust fuel security is essential not only for domestic stability but also for Australia’s ability to meet its broader strategic and defence commitments.
Amid this complex backdrop, Australia has begun to take steps to address its vulnerabilities. Recent initiatives, including plans to expand onshore fuel storage and secure long-term supply agreements, signal a recognition of the urgent need to comply with IEA requirements and reduce reliance on imported fuels. However, achieving a sustainable and secure energy future requires a comprehensive approach, encompassing investment in renewable energy technologies, strengthening regional partnerships, and enhancing supply chain resilience.
As global challenges continue to evolve, Australia’s ability to navigate these pressures will hinge on its commitment to safeguarding its energy independence and resilience.
Recognising this combination of factors, and Australia’s seeming lack of concern, former senator for South Australia Rex Patrick and Royal Australian Air Force Air Vice-Marshal (Ret’d) John Blackburn have revealed just how vulnerable Australia is to any significant shock or worse, conflagration at either a regional or global level that could serve to effectively halt our access to global flows of liquid energy.
Falling well short
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted for many “uninitiated” Australians the importance of national resilience and, in particular, demonstrated the interplay between our national economy and supply chains on the average consumer (think toilet paper, mask and personal protective equipment shortages experienced during the pandemic) at both the national and global levels.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, following the Hamas-led attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, which expanded to encompass the Red Sea as Iranian-backed Houthis began targeting international shipping traversing the Red Sea, further highlighted the impact of flashpoints around the world on realities at home and at least for a time seemed to heighten the subject within Australia’s public consciousness.
However, as with everything in the era of 24-hour news cycles and the hyper-politicisation of contemporary society, it appears to have fallen by the wayside, at least, until the release of new documents detailing the findings and recommendations of the Exercise Catalyst Report 2019 wargame conducted by the Commonwealth government’s National Oil Supplies Emergency Committee (NOSEC) obtained by former senator for South Australia Rex Patrick under freedom of information (FOI).
Importantly, the exercise used an eerily familiar scenario, that being a crisis in the Middle East, which sees the interdiction and halting of maritime trade out of the Persian Gulf via the Straits of Hormuz in response to a series of attacks on Japanese and Norwegian oil tankers and a subsequent military response by the United States, seeking to restore stability to the globally significant waterways and the calm volatility in the global energy markets.
A second order effect of this initial flashpoint in the scenario saw tensions rising in our own region, with oil tankers travelling through the South China Sea to South Korea and Japan intercepted and halted, resulting in flow-on impacts for the global ship insurers refusing to cover vessels in both the Middle East and Western Pacific, with these factors further compounded by refineries in Singapore, Japan and South Korea unable to operate due to a lack of crude oil.
What this meant is a significant impact on Australia’s own access to and supplies of liquid energy, particularly fuel oil and precursors, as well as other key industrial outputs that stem from the oil-refining process that are equally as important to the functioning of the national economy at both the macro and micro levels.
Adding further concerning colour to these factors, Air Vice-Marshal (Ret’d) John Blackburn, speaking to the ABC, warned that despite Australia’s obligations as part of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Australia as it stands only held enough liquid fuel to deliver “chilled and frozen goods for seven days, dry goods for nine days, hospital pharmacy supplies for three days, retail pharmacy for seven days and fuel to service stations for three days”.
Further to this, the same ABC piece revealed that “Australia has 48 days’ worth of net imports (total imports minus exports), including 22 for diesel, 17 for jet fuel, and 29 for petrol consumption. This includes stock on land and in domestic and coastal waters.”
Two meals from barbarism
When one considers the saying attributed to American author Neil Gaiman, “It has been said that civilisation is 24 hours and two meals away from barbarism” becomes truly powerful and terrifying in the context of modern Australian society where the overwhelming culture is one that can be best summarised as “she’ll be right mate”.
Adding further concern is the revelations late in 2024 that Australia was experiencing a national intravenous (IV) fluid shortage, surprising considering the level of national anxiety that dominated and experienced by much of Australian society during the COVID-19 pandemic and reassurances by respective Australian governments at both state/territory and Commonwealth levels that more was being done to mitigate such vulnerabilities.
Building on these factors, Blackburn detailed to the ABC, “Our way of life depends upon cheaper oil and fuel coming from overseas, but it does so at the cost of our security and resilience.”
However, one area that is often overlooked in many conversations, yet highlighted in the documents obtained under FOI, is the level of understanding of and impact on the Australian public of any constraints on domestic access to liquid fuels and the flow-through effects, particularly rationing that would need to be introduced in order to ensure the continuing security of the nation and at least subsistent level operation of the national economy.
Recognising this, the FOI documents articulate, “Whilst public sentiment and the media have ‘understood’ that this has been an international issue, there are concerns about the impact that rationing will have on them and are questioning why the government wasn’t more prepared.”
Importantly, this statement recognises that there is still a gap of information in the public sphere and could potentially be exploited if our liquid fuel needs and strategic stockpiles are not firmed up and firmed up in the country, not stored offshore but still counted as “domestic supplies”.
If Australia fails to get its hands around this challenge, the nation ultimately leaves itself dangerously exposed at the tactical and strategic level for any required military response, and at a national level, serves to leave the national economy and population equally exposed to the potential for significant declines in living standards, increases to cost of living and a potential for unprecedented economic devastation further undermining our efficacy as a partner of consequence in the Indo-Pacific.
Final thoughts
For generations of Australians in the early to middle stages of their careers, at the time that they should be settling down and starting families, our system is unavoidably stacked against them.
Is it any wonder alternative methods of political engagement, policy making, and economics are attractive to people when they are promised the world for little to no effort?
At the same time, we have seen a corresponding rise of social, cultural dislocation and disconnection coupled with individual aimlessness and the resulting impact on personal identity and mental health among younger Australians.
By helping to provide a rallying call – creating a compelling narrative full of excitement, opportunity, and purpose – policymakers can help reverse the trend of stagnation and decline, allowing Australians to turn the tide and build a resilient and competitive nation for this era of renewed competition between autarchy and democracy.
Equally, we must be focused on expanding and enhancing the opportunities available to Australians while building critical economic resilience, and as a result, deterrence to economic coercion, should be the core focus of the government because only when our economy is strong can we ensure that we can deter aggression towards the nation or our interests.
If we are going to emerge as a prosperous, secure, and free nation in the new era of great power competition, it is clear we will need to break the shackles of short-termism and begin to think far more long term to the benefit of current and future generations of Australians.
Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia’s future role and position in the Indo-Pacific region and what you would like to see from Australia’s political leaders in terms of partisan and bipartisan agenda setting in the comments section below, or get in touch at
