iscover
As a second Trump administration looms, commentary is rife with alarm over his “disruptive” and “destructive” impact on the global order and America’s role. Yet for Australia, clinging to history won’t cut it – opportunities abound if we’re bold enough to seize them.
Throughout its history, Australia’s view of itself, its role in the world and our interests have been directly viewed through the lens of how it directly impacts and intersects with the interests, ambitions and designs of our “great and powerful friend” of the day.
As a result of this, we have gradually seen much of Australia’s policy making, particularly in the foreign and national security policy, “outsourced”, inculcating a culture of deference, dependence and naivety across all aspects of Australian politics, culture and life, best summarised by the tried and true Australian saying of “she’ll be right mate”.
But what does all of this have to do with the incoming Trump administration or Trump 2.0, as it has been increasingly referred to?
Well, surprisingly, quite a lot, particularly given the widely held belief that Donald Trump, like many of the other emerging populist leaders in Europe, is likely to disrupt and, in many ways, dismantle the post-Second World War economic, political and strategic order, apparently throwing all of the equity Australia had dutifully built up since 1945 into the bin.
While no doubt the United States and its new president has a lot of sway over the post-Second World War order, it is not alone in influencing the future direction of the global balance of power in the 21st century.
The rise of China and India, as well as the broader economic, political and strategic emergence of formerly developing nations across Asia, Africa, the Middle East and South America, including the formalisation of a parallel global order through multilateral organisations like the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, have only served to accelerate the transition from a unipolar, US-dominated world towards a multipolar world order.
In response, rather than shying away from the challenge, Trump’s America is charging straight into the fray, preparing to once again set a cat among the pigeons and disrupt the global order – and for those US allies and partners seeking to share in the spoils, opportunities abound.
With this in mind, what can Australia do in order to embrace the opportunities? Well, first and foremost, it begins with a culture shock.
Don’t be turned off by the Trump culture shock
Since his election, incoming President Trump has set about completely disrupting the economic, political and strategic status quo on the geopolitical stage – whether it is seeking to reclaim the Panama Canal, “annexing” Canada or even adventurism over Greenland – once again resulting in many an analyst and commentator defaulting to their rhetoric of Trump’s designs to destroy and dismantle the “liberal rules-based order”.
This has been met with further shock as Trump’s foreign policy transition team has articulated the incoming president’s desire to see NATO member states lifting their defence spending from the 2 per cent floor to 5 per cent while being happy to settle with 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), respectively.
On the economic front, the growing threat of tariffs and the end of the era of hyper-globalisation-driven “free trade”, at the cost of domestic industries and local supply chains, have further spooked Australian policymakers as our primary trading partner, the People’s Republic of China, is firmly in the sights of the Trump administration as it seeks to reverse the de-industrialisation of the US economy experienced since the 1990s.
Each of these factors will undoubtedly have a dramatic impact on Australia’s bottom line. On the economic front, further slowdowns in China’s already stagnant economy will no doubt have a major impact on our economic solvency at a time when our own national debt continues to grow while the economy continues to be hollowed out, becoming little more than a banana republic.
Expectations that Australia will lift its defence spending above the 2 per cent of GDP mark and well north of the proposed 2.4 per cent of GDP outlined by the government’s 2024 National Defence Strategy and 2024 Integrated Investment Program mean that more of our shrinking economic pie and declining industrial base will need to be diverted towards our own national security and defence capabilities.
Meanwhile, the growing expectation from the US that its allies and partners will do more to defend themselves and contribute to collective security, rather than deferring to the US to do all the heavy lifting, will no doubt come as a shock to an infantilised Australian defence and national security ecosystem that is dependent on the US for every minor facet of its thought process, acquisition consideration through to policy development and implementation.
This shift towards “global burden sharing”, as coined by Secretary of Defense hopeful Pete Hegseth during his Senate confirmation hearing, is a marked departure from previous incarnations of the approach, with far more tangible outcomes and key performance indicators expected to be measured under this second Trump administration.
Yet for whatever reason, Australian policymakers and their global counterparts continue to be turned off by Trump’s abrupt and pointed way of dealing with them, rather than reflecting that repeated US presidents have expected the same, they were just far more mealy-mouthed about their approach.
Ultimately, what this discomfort reveals is that these leaders have now recognised that their free ride is over and that in a new era of great power competition, the bare minimum will no longer suffice.
But it isn’t all bad news!
Economic, political and strategic opportunities abound!
Nineteenth century German statesman Otto von Bismarck is credited with stating, “God has a special providence for fools, drunkards and the United States of America” as he eluded to the unrivalled wealth, prosperity and potential the United States was seemingly preternaturally endowed with.
In many ways, Australia, too, enjoys this divine providence. We have mastery of an entire continent that enjoys virtually unrivalled natural resources, an abundance of energy stockpiles, geographic proximity to the largest and fastest growing economies in the world, multiple world-feeding food bowls, coupled with a stable government, trusted legal system and well-educated population, yet for whatever reason, we seem determined not to embrace this providence.
Where America’s concept of “Manifest Destiny” positions the culture, the people and nation for a future characterised by ambition, Australia’s “She’ll be right mate” approach leaves us subject to the whims and ambitions of our regional and global neighbours, stripping us of the agency to act in our own interests as any mature nation and people do.
Whether it is the industrial transition now in its earliest stages with the application of automation, additive manufacturing and quantum computing, through to the sheer volumes of quality agricultural produce demanded by the voracious appetites of the Indo-Pacific, the need for quality refined raw materials through to energy, Australia has it all, we just need to watch and learn from others and emulate their success.
As I am fond of saying, Australia requires its own “Rocky montage” moment across every aspect of our political, economic, strategic and societal hierarchy. We need to start putting our nation and our people first, reversing the culture of “managed decline” and parasitic resource extraction that has come to characterise virtually every aspect of Australian public life, from big business to public policy making.
Rephrasing the words of the 35th President of the United States, John F Kennedy, it is time to ask what we can do for our country, not what our country can do for us, because otherwise, we may very well find ourselves out in the cold in an increasingly competitive global environment.
Final thoughts
First and foremost, Australians will have to accept that while the world is increasingly becoming “multipolar”, the Indo-Pacific, in particular, is rapidly becoming the most hotly contested region in the world, and this will fundamentally reshape the position, role and security of the nation.
This period of multipolarity competition has been underpinned by the emerging economic, political and strategic might of powers like China, India, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the established and re-emerging capability of both South Korea and Japan, in particular, are serving to create a hotbed of competition on our doorstep.
Second, both the Australian public and our policymakers will have to accept that without a period of considered effort, investment and reform, or our “Rocky montage” moment, current and future generations of Australians will be increasingly impoverished, living in a nation pushed around by the region’s now rising powers.
Recognising this array of challenges and opportunities, both the Australian public and its policymakers need to look beyond the myopic lens of short-termism that has traditionally dominated our diplomatic, strategic and economic policy making since Federation.
Again, as I have said multiple times before, we need to see Australia begin to play the long game to fully capitalise on the opportunities that are transforming the Indo-Pacific.
The most important question now becomes, when will we see a more detailed analysis and response to the challenges and opportunities facing Australia, and when will we see both a narrative and strategy that better helps industry and the Australian public understand the challenges faced and opportunities we have presented before us?
As events continue to unfold throughout the region and China continues to throw its economic, political and strategic weight around, can Australia afford to remain a secondary power or does it need to embrace a larger, more independent role in an era of increasing great power competition?
Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia’s future role and position in the Indo-Pacific region and what you would like to see from Australia’s political leaders in terms of partisan and bipartisan agenda setting in the comments section below, or get in touch at
