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While some proclaimed the collapse of the Soviet Union as the end of history, the new millennium marked a major shift in the global power paradigm. The rise of China, India and a group of reinvigorated Asian tigers kicked-off an unprecedented economic and military transformation, challenging regional powers like Japan and Australia and calling into question the post-World War Two geo-political and strategic order.
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Not since the end of the Second World War has the world experienced a greater economic, political and strategic paradigm shift. The post-war collapse of Europe's colonial powers throughout Asia and Africa, combined with the political and strategic competition between the US and Soviet Union, set the stage for the 21st century rise of Asia.
Despite the unprecedented economic transformation, Indo-Pacific Asia is a region defined by ancient ethnic, religious and political animosities and constantly evolving geo-political and strategic ambitions resulting in a period of rapid military modernisation and expansion.
Further complicating the regional strategic calculus is the growing prominence of asymmetric threats ranging from multi-national organised crime networks and human trafficking to religious extremist organisations and individual cyber experts capable of crippling economies, governments and militaries with the push of a button.
As a middle power, Australia has a unique role to play in supporting the continued development and security of Indo-Pacific Asia, however the rise of these competing nations, combined with the relative decline of the US and its and willingness to act as a regional security benefactor, is causing a strategic and political rethink for Australia and its role, capability and position as an Indo-Pacific power.
The rising dragon
As economic prosperity has transformed China and India, both nations have embarked upon a period of unprecedented militarisation. Driven by rising nationalism and haunted by the echoes of colonialism, the rising powers of Asia are making renewed efforts to maximise their military capabilities with a focus on securing and expanding their national interests.
These national interests are driven largely by the voracious energy and resource demands of their growing economies, China and India have focused on developing a suite of advanced force projection capabilities, this has included strategic platforms including aircraft carriers, strategic bombers, strategic nuclear forces, submarines and modernised, manoeuvre warfare focused combined arms forces.
China's military modernisation was driven by a number of international factors, namely the technology driven routing of Saddam Hussein's Red Army-modelled forces during both Gulf Wars and the unrestricted US Navy intervention during the Taiwan Crisis of the mid-1990s, both of which highlighted critical tactical and strategic weaknesses within the People's Liberation Army.
This dedicated modernisation, reorganisation and restructuring driven by a rapidly growing defence budget, which is now the second-largest in the world, currently estimated by think tanks including the RAND Corporation and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) to be worth US$200 billion has resulted in both a quantitative and qualitative increase the capabilities of the PLA.
In particular, the introduction of major new platforms including fifth-generation fighter aircraft in the J-20 and FC-31, upgraded H-6K strategic bombers, a rapidly growing force projection and sea control focused 'blue water' navy, centred on aircraft carriers, their supporting strike groups and strategic submarine forces.
The Chinese land forces have also undergone a series of modernisation and restructuring programs to streamline the Army and strategic missile forces with a focus on rectifying weaknesses identified during the Gulf War and developing high-intensity focused land forces capable of engaging with and defeating a peer competitor's land forces.
These traditional military capabilities are further supported by the introduction and development of advanced anti-access/area denial systems, including the Dong-Feng-21 and Dong Feng-26 anti-ship ballistic (ASBM) and anti-ship cruise missiles on reclaimed islands in the South China Sea, combined with growing space and cyber capabilities that seek to exploit perceived weaknesses in peer competitors, namely the US and Japan, and broader allies including Australia.
The storming elephant
India's unique geo-political location at the centre of the Indian Ocean and critical global sea-lines-of-communication, responsible for more than 80 per cent of the world's seaborne trade in critical energy supplies, namely oil and natural gas combined with animosities with Pakistan to the west and China to the north has resulted in the nation embarking on its own military modernisation and expansion.
This modernisation program has focused on replacing in some cases antiquated platforms and equipment, dating back to the Second World War and early Cold War. The Indian Army in particular has partnered with Russian, European and US suppliers to modernise and replace platforms from small arms and artillery, to advanced main battle tanks and armoured personnel carriers, through to attack helicopters and heavy lift helicopters.
Russia has supported the modernisation of the Indian Navy as well, through a series of joint development and leasing programs for Akula Class nuclear attack submarines, these submarines are also supported by the introduction of French Scorpene Class submarines and domestically produced guided missile destroyers and aircraft carriers, with British-based BAE Systems offering the Indian Navy the schematics for the Royal Navy's Queen Elizabeth Class aircraft carriers.
The collaboration between Russia and India has also resulted in a suite of advanced ASCM systems including the BrahMos hypersonic missile, which is designed to defeat the advanced air defence networks and capabilities of guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates and other screening vessels for larger power projection naval assets, namely aircraft carriers and big-deck amphibious warfare ships.
India's Air Force is embarking on a series of modernisation programs to respond to those in both China and Pakistan, with a focus on delivering advanced air combat capabilities following a series of failed acquisition and local development programs. A number of US companies, including Lockheed Martin and Boeing, are offering contenders to replace India's ageing air force units.
Additionally, India has, like its Chinese counterparts, embarked on a program of research and development into both cyber and space-based capabilities, with the recent successful test of a domestically developed anti-satellite weapons system that established India as the fourth nation to develop and test such capabilities, increasing the deterrence capabilities of the Indian government.
A dispersed centre of gravity
While the rise of both China and India stand out as the most prominent examples of the region's meteoric transformation, Indo-Pacific Asia's periphery nations, including Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, also represent a major geo-political and strategic shift in the global and regional economic, political and strategic power paradigm.
For Australia, these nations, like their larger counterparts, present a unique series of challenges to its national interests and role in Indo-Pacific Asia. In the next part we will take a closer look at the capabilities of the region's emerging middle and great powers to help form a coherent and holistic image of the regional strategic and military power paradigm.
