On Point: Taking a closer look at the fall out of the US election

For many in both the US and around the world, the election of Donald Trump in 2016 was an aberration, elected on the back of seemingly nationalist "America First" policies and commitments of restoring a "lost" greatness to the US, which had declined, particularly under the Obama administration. 

Focused on returning "stolen" jobs to the long forgotten rust belt of middle America, rebalancing the lopsided trade relationship with the nation's largest economic, political and strategic competitor in China, cracking down on "lazy" allies in across the globe, Trump's policy approach was focused on one thing: Making America Great Again.

This wrecking ball of a President flew in the face of all established convention and etiquette directly confronting the media, Republican and Democratic powerbrokers, and world leaders seemingly without reprieve as he disrupted the global norm, causing many in the media, strategic policy community and governments around the world to shudder in fear lest they draw the wrath of the mercurial leader of the free world. 

While both sides of the political spectrum, both within the US and increasingly around the world, have taken up arms against one another, as is evidenced by mounting social, economic and political tensions in the aftermath of the 2016 election, the President has largely stood true to his word.

Trump moved quickly to hold communist China more accountable for the economic manipulations and strategic ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, while seeking to make long dependent US allies across Europe and in parts of the Indo-Pacific, more accountable and invested in their collective security, bringing teeth to president Obama's own push to hold allies more accountable. 

On the opposite side of the political aisle in Washington, presumptive President-elect Joe Biden would seemingly be a known, stabilising quantity for the global community and Australia's public policymakers in particular, with a long history of foreign engagement and a recent history to inform the approach of a potential Biden administration. 

Biden draws on extensive foreign policy experience dating back to the Cold War, with the presumptive President-elect playing a pivotal role in the Obama administration's apparent policy reset after the George W. Bush administration, one that many would debate the efficacy of, particularly in the realm of great power competition. 

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In this edition of the On Point, Defence Connect speaks to Visiting Fellow, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney, Stephen Loosley AM to discuss the implications of the US election and what a Biden administration means for the Indo-Pacific and Australia. 

Defence Connect: The US election has been highly contested and contentious, what are your views on election and the transition of the power? 

Stephen Loosley AM: I think we'll see an administration that is much more orderly, is much more disciplined. And from an Australian perspective, much more predictable. For example, I don't think we'll see a repeat of President Trump's unilateral decision to have withdrawals, on more than one occasion, from the Middle East, which really blindsided the Australian embassy in Washington.

I pay tribute to the Australian ambassadors, from Kim Beazley through Joe Hockey to Arthur Sinodinos. I think they're all uniformly excellent in their work. And the Australian embassy didn't complain to Pentagon and State about those unilateral decisions that everyone read about in that morning's New York Times. They simply said that we were blindsided. And the senior American officials with whom the embassy were dealing said, "Well, we were blindsided too."

So I think under President Biden, we are likely to see much greater co-operation with our allies, a greater degree of collaboration with allies on the issues that are pressing, be it in the Indo-Pacific, be it in Europe or in the Middle East, than we've seen with the Trump administration. Particularly given the number of people in very senior positions who have simply been dismissed, been vaporised.

The most recent being Defense Secretary Mark Esper. I think we'll see a much more orderly process and much closer co-operation with allies.

Defence Connect: Given the current challenges facing both the US and the world, what do you think the initial focus points for a Biden-Harris administration will be? 

Stephen Loosley AM: Domestically the virus, the plague, is going to occupy a great deal of time, as we've already seen. And he's going to have a much greater preparedness as president, to intervene. Just on a simple matter, like wearing a mask. Now, I think it was a British conservative minister, I think it was Michael Gove, who said wearing a mask is simply good manners.

That was the British government approach. The Australian government and the states have been quite reasonable on mask, treating it as a public health issue. In the United States for a lot of people, particularly on the right, this has become an ideological question. And I saw a Republican in South Dakota talking about how free people were in South Dakota.

They didn't wear masks. Well, as we know, wearing a mask is one of those simple tasks, like social distancing, washing your hands and so on and so forth, that really brings the virus capacity to infect people down dramatically.

So, I think COVID is going to occupy the president's time first and foremost. Economic recovery stems from that. And then I think there will be a concerted effort on the part of the new president to rebuild relations with disaffected allies, particularly in Europe.

I'm thinking of Germany and France, other countries, that were not always treated with a measure of respect. Nor were the Canadians, for example. Not treated with the measure of respect, we've come to expect from both Republican and Democratic occupants of the White House.

In our area of the world, some of the nonsense of the Trump period will really be a departing and we should applaud. For example, James Mattis, when he was defense secretary, records in his book that President Trump was forever saying, "Why on earth are we," the United States, "Why are we in South Korea. Why is the Eighth Army still here?" And would rail about a trade deficit with Seoul. And in the end, Mattis said to him at a meeting of the National Security Council, "Well, we're endeavouring to protect the peace. We're endeavouring to guarantee peace."

So different points. President Trump apparently wanted to tear up the alliance relationship with the ROK. Now, thankfully, we'll see the end of that. And I think the new president and whoever comes in as secretary of state and secretary of defense, and there are some good names mentioned from an Australian perspective, from Michèle Flournoy, Susan Rice, and others. Kurt Campbell, for example. Well acquainted with Australia, well acquainted with the region, I think would fit easily in a Democratic administration.

Defence Connect: How much of the Trump-era approach to foreign affairs will remain, if any? 

Stephen Loosley AM: If we see the end of America First, which essentially, under the Trump administration, had become America alone, that will be a very good thing for Australia because it will cause the United States to look at multi-lateral relations, particularly in the trade area, and hopefully even take a more positive attitude to the World Trade Organization. I expect as part of a Biden administration, working more closely with allies, we may see some effort to revive the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the TPP. That will be very difficult, but it's a goal of Australian policy. And the best argument now for reviving the TPP is one of strategic weight, of bringing countries in the region together in a more closely co-ordinated trade and investment role.

I think the President-elect's emphasis on tackling climate change also works for us rather than against us, in the sense that there's been a lot said about Australia will be out of step. Well in the south Pacific we are not out of step in terms of our ability to contribute where we want to contribute, to island states that are really confronting very, very difficult circumstances as the planet warms.

I think a greater degree of co-operation between Australia and the US there will work. I think also, with The Quad, with the Japanese, the Indians and ourselves, there's greater capacity for co-operation there. Now let me say this, I don't think the Morrison government has handled the American relationship poorly. I think it's been quite adept at dealing with the Trump administration.

It's very difficult, as senior American cabinet members have discovered, it's very difficult to wait upon the next tweet to see what the shift in American policy is going to be. And the fact that that is going is a very good thing.

Defence Connect: How do you think Biden will approach Australia and the relationship between the two nations? 

Stephen Loosley AM: Let's remember that the pivot to Asia was Obama policy with Hillary Clinton as secretary of state. So, I think a lot of the traces can be picked up there, and closer co-operation with which is a really central objective of Australian foreign policy, I suspect will become more important to the Americans as well. There's no doubt the jockeying and the lobbying is underway.

I don't approve of this so-called accountability list that some on the left of the Democratic Party have drawn up to punish Trump enablers, people who've served in the Trump administration. I suspect President-elect Biden might not approve of that either.

If he's endeavouring to heal, and I think that's genuine, then we'll probably see a bipartisan element in the cabinet, with senior Republicans occupying positions.

Bear this in mind, and I think this is important for people on the podcast today, vice president Biden received more endorsements from prominent Republicans than any previous democratic candidate for president of the United States. People well known to Australians, Colin Powell, Bob Selig, and the like. Serious players in the Republic's history.

I think part of that will spill over so you'll say some faces that definitely represent the breadth and depth of the American people, and some of those will be Republican.

Australia is of real significance in this part of the world and beyond, for the Americans. There's no question about that. If we did nothing else, Pine Gap would guarantee you that. And of course there are the joint exercises now, not only in the Northern Territory, but elsewhere, and our preparedness to contribute in truly difficult situations, such as the terrorist situation in the Philippines a year or two ago, that earns marks.

There's no question about that. I was fortunate, a few years back when Joe Biden was vice president of the United States, to be in the room with the Australian and American delegations for the Australian American dialogue. And I must say, he was impressive. He was as sharp as paint. He'd answer some questions just with a single word. He engaged with people. And it was clear he was very relaxed in the company of Australians.

He always had a very good relationship, for example, with Julie Bishop when she was Australian foreign minister. And so it goes. So there's a credit in the bank there, and there's always been a preparedness to talk with Australians and to work with Australians. And as I said, some of the names mentioned for a Biden cabinet have us well-placed as well.

The fact that we have not been involved in controversies with the Trump administration works for us again. There's a lot more rebuilding the Americans need to do in Europe than in this part of the world.

You can listen to the full Defence Connect podcast with Stephen Loosley AM here.