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The recent coup in Myanmar threatens regional stability. Conflict between the junta and the emboldened street protest movement risks the creation of a political vacuum in the country and will likely result in foreign interference bolstering both sides of the conflict, threatening ongoing stability in the Indo-Pacific.
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Earlier this year, the Burmese military (Tatmadaw) staged a coup following the election of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy with 61 per cent of the national vote, having secured 83 per cent of the contested seats, according to Human Rights Watch.
Since the coup, the world has watched in horror as protestors and the military junta undertake pitched street battles. Just this week, the ASEAN Post reported that the Tatmadaw began firing at healthcare protesters in Mandalay, with one suspected death. As of mid-April, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, an NGO overseen by former political prisoners in Burma, alleged that 739 people have been killed by the military government, with a further 76 people sentenced.
With intensifying protests and potential foreign interference on both sides of the conflict, it would seem unlikely that either side would yield soon.
In response to the unravelling situation, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) scheduled a summit with the leader of the military government, Sr Gen Min Aung Hlaing.
NGO Human Rights Watch called upon ASEAN to cancel the summit, alleging that the summit will only serve to provide legitimacy to the junta.
“ASEAN’s inclusion of Min Aung Hlaing lends unwarranted legitimacy to the junta’s State Administrative Council over Myanmar’s democratically elected government, which the military overthrew in a coup on February 1,” Human Rights Watch wrote in a statement.
Asia director at Human Rights Watch, Brad Adams, called upon regional leaders to place sanctions on the country.
“Min Aung Hlaing, who faces international sanctions for his role in military atrocities and the brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protesters, should not be welcomed at an intergovernmental gathering to address a crisis he created.
“ASEAN members should instead take this opportunity to impose targeted, economic sanctions on junta leaders and on businesses that fund the junta, and press the junta to release political detainees, end abuses, and restore the country’s democratically elected government,” Adams outlined.
Human Rights Watch argued that the Tatmadaw’s allegations that the recent election was rigged was deemed incorrect by numerous election observation agencies.
Adams continued, outlining that the upcoming ASEAN summit may inflame the crisis by providing a podium to the junta.
“ASEAN should be playing a constructive role in resolving Myanmar’s crisis, not providing a podium to the general most responsible for creating it.
“ASEAN should make clear that it stands with Myanmar’s democratically elected government and will demand accountability from Min Aung Hlaing and other junta leaders responsible for the deaths of hundreds protesting for democracy,” Adams argues.
This view is mirrored by ASPI senior analyst Hyong Le Thu in The Strategist this week.
“If ASEAN is hoping for a peaceful resolution to this crisis, perhaps through some sort of power-sharing arrangement between the military and the unity government, inviting only a Tatmadaw representative effectively negates such a possibility,” Le Thu suggests.
While ASEAN has proven ideologically flexible regarding the mediation of the litany of countries that it hosts, Le Thu argues that the intensity of the protests against the junta provides a dimension to the dialogue which will challenge the peace process.
“It’s those characteristics that allowed it to include and involve communist Vietnam and the still junta-led Myanmar for the sake of regional coherence and economic development. ASEAN sees its engagement approach as the means to the end goal of regional progress. This approach even yielded some success with Myanmar in 2008. But the situation this time is different, primarily because of the strength and determination of the civil disobedience movement. The military will not gain the support of the Burmese people,” Le Thu notes.
It is in ASEAN’s best interests to ensure a peaceful transition of power between the military and the democratically elected government. The threat of a proxy war in the country will threaten the safety and stability of all surrounding countries. As such, ASEAN for one of the first times should take a decisive and direct unified policy position on the issue and support the return of the democratically elected government.
[Related: Australia suspends defence ties with Myanmar]
