Biden’s bane – The growing threat of nuclear war under his watch

Last month, Defence Connect Insight explored the implications behind US President Joe Biden’s 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), submitted to Congress in March.

According to the Pentagon, the NPR represents a “comprehensive, balanced approach” to US nuclear strategy, policy, posture and forces.

The interim 2022 NPR strategy notes that as long as nuclear weapons exist, the “fundamental role” of the US stockpile would be to “deter nuclear attack” on the United States, our allies, and partners”.   

The Pentagon went on to stress that the United States would only consider the use of nuclear weapons “in extreme circumstances”.

Has this grim scenario become more likely since Biden assumed office in January 2021?   

According to Peter Brookes, senior research fellow at The Heritage Foundation, amid Russia’s ongoing assault on Ukraine, nuclear sabre-rattling among US adversaries has “reached a deeply unsettling din”.

“Understandably, the conflict in Ukraine is drawing a significant amount of foreign policy attention these days,” he writes.

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“Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is the largest conflict in Europe since World War II.

“Unfortunately, the brandishing of bombs by North Korea, Iran, and Russia has become increasingly worrisome as nuclear and missile threats skyrocket since the Biden administration took office.”     

Brookes warns North Korea is “dead serious” about its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, yet negotiations with Pyongyang have stalled since Biden assumed office.

“Indeed, Pyongyang has gone ‘ballistic’, with at least 14 missile tests already this year,” he notes.

“A North Korean long-range ballistic missile test in March was assessed to be able to reach the United States.

“It was also the first intercontinental ballistic missile test since 2017—and the missile is expected to be capable of carrying multiple warheads.”    

Brookes also flags concerns over an underground nuclear test—potentially the first since 2017—and references remarks from Kim Jong-un during a military parade in April, in which he threatened to use nuclear weapons pre-emptively if provoked.

The analyst goes on to note Biden’s unproductive discussions with Iran over its nuclear and missile programs, with the Vienna talks about the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action stalling earlier this year.

“The negotiating teams from Iran, US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China have presumably returned to their capitals,” he writes.

“It’s not clear when—or whether—the talks will resume.”

This is despite a sobering testimony before Congress from Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who claimed Iran could have the uranium required for a nuclear weapon in just weeks.

“That’s deeply troubling,” Brookes continues.

“Lengthening and strengthening of the (deeply flawed) Iran nuclear deal that Team Biden promised seems increasingly unlikely at this point—meaning, the chance of nuclear crisis with the Iranian regime looks increasingly likely.”

Meanwhile, Moscow has been flexing its nuclear capability, with President Vladimir Putin placing his nuclear forces on “high alert” in hopes of deterring stronger NATO involvement in Ukraine.  

“It’s no surprise that Moscow has been brandishing its hefty nuclear sword recently,” Brookes adds.

“It feels it needs to remind those supporting Ukraine of its nuclear superpower status—and the potential consequences of doing so.”

Brookes points to Russian state TV’s threat to “drown Britain” with a “nuclear tsunami” by firing its nuclear torpedo, Poseidon.

Russia also recently test-launched its new heavy intercontinental ballistic missile, the Sarmat, capable of carrying 20 nuclear warheads and deploying a nuclear-armed hypersonic glide vehicle.

Brookes warns Russia might also consider launching a tactical nuclear weapon to “influence or end” the war on Ukraine “on its terms”.

He concludes by urging the Biden administration to ramp-up its efforts to deter hostile nations from further aggression.

“The world is an increasingly dangerous place, only made more menacing by the proliferation of nuclear technology and nuclear weapons, and dangerous threats involving their use by desperate, dictatorial regimes,” Brookes writes.

“Consequently, given its record to date, the Biden administration must up its “game” diplomatically and militarily to protect American interests, considering the growing nuclear threat the US and its allies are clearly facing.”

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