Top 5: Defence Connect’s top 5 stories of 2019

The last year of the decade has shaped up to be an incredibly complex year – we have seen a surprise federal election result, the rise of an increasingly assertive cluster of regional powers and the continued development of Australia's defence industry.

We have seen progress on some of Australia's largest defence projects, with the $35 billion SEA 5000 Hunter Class frigates, $80 billion SEA 1000 Attack Class and the arrival of a growing fleet of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft boosting the combat capability of the Australian Defence Force. 

Recognising the changing regional and global environment, Defence Connect has moved to expand its offering of daily market intelligence to include a daily offering of global and regional policy, thought leadership and analysis. 

1. The growing case for an Australian aircraft carrier 

Aircraft carriers emerged from the Second World War as the pinnacle of maritime prestige and power projection.

However, unlike their predecessors, the battleship, aircraft carriers are in themselves relatively benign actors, relying heavily a their attached carrier air-wings and supporting escort fleets of cruisers, destroyers and submarines to screen them from hostile action. 

Japan's recent announcement that it would refit its Izumo Class vessels to act as F-35B carriers has seen ASPI kick off renewed debate about the viability of a similar platform for the Royal Australian Navy. 

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Malcolm Davis of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has reopened the debate around the return of fixed-wing naval aviation and strike capabilities for the RAN in response to the rising regional carrier capabilities.

"Starting this conversation is part of a broader discussion ahead of the 2020-21 white paper. We have recognised that a) we can't have same white paper as 2016 and b) we need to start seriously responding to the changing strategic reality, which will require a wholesale review of the force structure and force posture and a renewed focus on long-range strike and power projection, both of which a carrier or similar vessel can fill perfectly," Dr Davis told Defence Connect.

2. ADF reportedly eyeing ranking revolution 

It is heavily rumoured that the Australian Defence Force will soon change its ranking systems to bring the service chiefs to equivalent rank with their global counterparts, and band four departmental secretaries in the Australian Public Service.

The touted changes would see the service chiefs become four-stars for the first time, with a full Admiral as Chief of Navy, a full General as Chief of Army and an Air Chief Marshal as Chief of Air Force.

The structure would see four-star rankings being designated for the Chief of the Defence Force, Vice Chief, and all of the individual service chiefs, with deputy service chiefs as three-stars.

3. Looking beyond the F-35: Penetrating Counter Air 

The US is looking beyond the fifth-generation F-35 with plans already underway for the sixth-generation 'Penetrating Counter Air' concept, which will be operated by the US Air Force and Navy and, potentially, allies like Australia.

With the growing success of Russian and Chinese fifth-generation fighter aircraft like the Su-57, J-20 and JF-31, the US has kicked off a suite of development programs to replace the ageing F-15 Eagle and fifth-generation F-22 Raptor air frames.

This Penetrating Counter Air concept will seek to complement the US Air Force F-35 and the US Navy's F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fleets, serving niche roles including air dominance, air supremacy, fleet air defence, air interdiction and precision strike.

The US is not the only nation beginning development of such platforms, as both the UK and a joint French-German team have begun developing their own sixth-generation air superiority combat fighters. 

BAE Systems announced the Tempest in July 2018. The Tempest program will incorporate industrial cooperation and collaboration between some of the largest and most advanced aerospace and defence companies in the world to deliver an unrivalled air combat capability for the RAF.

4. LAND 400 Phase 3 down select contenders announced 

Defence Minister Linda Reynolds and Defence Industry Minister Melissa Price confirmed the two down-select contenders for the Australian Army’s multibillion-dollar LAND 400 Phase 3 program. 

The LAND 400 Phase 3 program will replace the M113 armoured personnel carriers (APC), providing the Army with an advanced, world-class infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) capability.

Both options will provide the Army with a range of capabilities:

• Hanwha Defense Systems AS21 Redback: The AS21 will include the capability to integrate active protection systems into an evolved turret system. The Redback will be capable of hosting a crew of 11 (three crew, eight troops), a top road speed of 70km/h, cross country speed of 40km/h, an operational range of 500 kilometres, with an armament consisting of a 40mm autocannon and a single 7.62mm coaxial machine gun.  
• Rheinmetall Lynx KF-41: The Lynx KF41 will include the capability to support a crew of 12 (three crew, up to nine troops), have a max road speed of 70km/h, a road range of more than 500 kilometres, with an armament consisting of the Lance 2.0 30-35mm autocannon, a 7.62mm coaxial machine gun and a variety of additional close-in weapons systems.

LAND 400 Phase 3 is a $10 billion-$15 billion program, which will recapitalise the Army’s Vietnam-era M113 APC force, with a combination of a tracked IFV and tracked APC.

The Risk Mitigation Activity commenced in late 2019. Following its completion, Defence will undertake a final detailed evaluation of the shortlisted tenders.

A decision on the preferred tenderer to supply the Phase 3 capability will be presented to government for consideration in 2022.

5. How big is too big? Increasing the size of the ADF 

The ADF is beset by an almost perfect storm. A period of modernisation combined with the increasing capability of regional peer and near-peer competitors is forcing Australia to ask, is the ADF large enough to reliably execute the mission in a radically evolving geo-political and strategic order?

Over the past few months Defence Connect has received a range of feedback in response to articles regarding the recapitalisation, modernisation and expansion of the Australian Army, Royal Australian Navy and Royal Australian Air Force to better support and defend national interests in an increasingly challenging and complex Indo-Pacific environment. 

The unique operating environments and both tactical and strategic responsibilities of the individual branches, combined with recent revelations in the Australian Strategic Policy Institute's (ASPI) 'Cost of Defence Report' by Dr Marcus Hellyer, identified that while defence expenditure is rapidly heading towards the 2 per cent of GDP as committed to by the government, personnel recruitment remains a significant challenge. 

As it stands, the personnel budget for the Australian Defence Force for 2018-19 is $11,776 million, supporting 14,689 for the Royal Australian Navy, 14,295 for the Royal Australian Air Force and 30,810 Australian Army – for a total ADF strength of 59,794 personnel. Additionally, the budget supports 16,393 within the Australian Public Service and 19,850 reservists. 

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