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In a shift away from its Atlantic-centric focus NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has raised the idea of a more globally focused organisation in a speech during an online event organised by the Atlantic Council and the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
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He argued that the alliance should take on a greater political role in world affairs and help nations in the Asia-Pacific region contend with China’s rise.
This speech comes as US President Donald Trump reportedly plans to withdraw more than a quarter of American troops out of Germany weakening not only the NATO alliance but the US itself.
The speech
Stoltenberg calls this shift “not a global presence, but a global approach” in his speech he also noted that military strength and greater political use of the organisation will set it up for greater effectiveness in combating the rising power of Russia and China.
“As we look to 2030, we need to work even more closely with like-minded countries, like Australia, Japan, New Zealand and [South] Korea, to defend the global rules and institutions that have kept us safe for decades, to set norms and standards in space and cyber space, on new technologies and global arms control, and ultimately to stand up for a world built on freedom and democracy, not on bullying and coercion,” said Stoltenberg in a clear swipe at the increasingly aggressive actions from China in the Pacific and elsewhere.
He argues Beijing becoming militarily and economically stronger represents a “fundamental shifting" in the global balance of power in which the Western alliance should not be caught flat-footed. He also called for greater cohesion among member states to "resist the temptation of national solutions”.
The call to resist national solutions may have missed their mark, however, as reports emerged of the US planning to reduce troop numbers in Germany in what could be called a national solution without consulting allies. The move could leave Europe slightly weaker in the face of adversaries but will ultimately damage the confidence NATO member will have the US’s commitment to Europe, especially following the annexation of the Crimea by Russia in 2014. Stoltenberg dodged questions about the reported troop cuts, instead reinforcing President Donald Trump's commitment to Europe.
There are multiple reports of where the news of the troop cut has come from and it appears that US lawmakers and leaders in Berlin have been left out of the discussion.
President Trump is said to have has signed off on the plan to reduce the total of troops stationed in Germany from 34,500 to no more than 25,000, according to reports by The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal, but German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer told reporters that Berlin hasn’t yet been informed of any such move.
NATO eyes China
The direction is likely to be welcomed in Washington, where President Trump has urged a tougher approach towards Beijing, which has emerged as the world’s second-largest military spender after the US.
“The rise of China is fundamentally shifting the global balance of power, heating up the race for economic and technological supremacy, multiplying the threats to open societies and individual freedoms and increasing the competition over our values and our way of life,” the Secretary General said in the speech setting out his 10-year vision for NATO.
“They’re coming closer in cyberspace, we see them in the Arctic, in Africa, we see them investigating in our critical infrastructure and they’re working more and more with Russia.
“All of this has security consequences for NATO allies.
“They already have the second-largest defence budget. They are investing heavily in modern military capabilities, including missiles that can reach NATO-allied countries.”
NATO was set up after 1945 to serve as a western alliance to combat Soviet expansion, and its focus remains the defence of Europe. However, President Trump’s election was accompanied by warnings he would reduce American support for the alliance to refocus on China.
No longer is Russia the number one adversary for the US replaced by a growing Chinese bravado. This is showing in its commitment to other areas of interest around the world including Africa, the Middle East, and now seemingly Europe as force structure becomes more focused on presence in the pacific to combat the rise of China. It only makes sense that the US-led NATO would also be pressured to shift focus towards China. What is less clear is how an organisation created around the defence of Europe from the Soviets will project its power towards the Pacific or at least co-operate with countries in China's neighbourhood.
China is becoming more brazen in its projection of power around the world. Since the virus outbreak, China has pursued an aggressive posture in the South China Sea and moved to end the “one country, two systems” structure in Hong Kong, to bring it more closely under Beijing’s control.
Beijing has also taken a stronger line against Taiwan, dropping its decades-old mantra about “peaceful reunification” with the island, alarming Taipei and its supporters.
Chinese fighter jets entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone without warning on Tuesday, prompting Taiwan to demand they leave. The entry of “multiple” planes coincided with an approved flyover by a US military transport plane. The US has raised its presence recently with “freedom of navigation” exercises intended to challenge what it sees as Beijing’s excessive maritime claims.
Whether a troop withdrawal from Germany means these forces will be moved into positions to better face China is yet to be seen as there is also a possibility of these troops being moved within NATO as I will discuss below.
US troops in Germany
The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that the White House had directed the Pentagon to cut at least 9500 troops from Germany by September. The directive, signed by National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien, also requires the Pentagon to cap the number of troops there at 25,000, down from 52,000.
The decision faces a backlash from two dozen Republicans in Congress, who have urged the White House to reconsider its decision to cut by half the number of American troops assigned to Germany.
“We believe that such steps would significantly damage US national security as well as strengthen the position of Russia to our detriment,” the representatives said in a letter to the White House. “We urge you to reject such proposals.”
A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters, confirmed to the Associated Press that there are plans to move troops, saying some could go to Poland while others could go elsewhere.
A move of troops within Europe to Poland is likely to represent action from the US in what President Trump has seen as a lack of commitment from Germany to defence spending. The Trump administration has been urging Germany to spend more on its defence to meet the NATO goal of spending 2 per cent of gross domestic product on defence, and American officials in the past had raised the possibility of moving troops out as a veiled threat.
The decision is part of the President and Department of Defense's efforts to review combatant commands around the globe, the official said. If the US goes ahead, Germany’s Minister Kramp-Karrenbauer suggested the move would do more harm to NATO as a whole than to Germany’s own defence.
“The fact is that the presence of US soldiers in Germany serves the entire NATO alliance security, including America’s own security,” she said. “That is the basis on which we work together.”
The government’s co-ordinator for trans-Atlantic relations, Peter Beyer, said if the plan is confirmed it wouldn’t be a surprise, but that it was irritating to first learn of the possibility through media reports.
“The German-American relationship could be severely affected by such a decision of the US President,” Beyer told the dpa news agency.
“It’s not just about 9,500 soldiers, but also about their families, so about 20,000 Americans. This would break down trans-Atlantic bridges.”
Since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, Germany has become much more a hub for wider American military operations.
Facilities include Ramstein Air Base, critical for operations in the Middle East and Africa and headquarters to the US Air Forces in Europe and Africa; the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, which has saved the lives of countless Americans wounded in Iraq and Afghanistan; and the headquarters of both US European Command and US Africa Command in Stuttgart.
Germany is also home to the headquarters of US Army Europe in Wiesbaden, an F-16 fighter base in Spangdahlem, and the Grafenwoehr Training Area, the largest NATO training facility in Europe.
“If this is confirmed, you have to ask yourself what impact this will have on NATO and the security architecture in Europe,” Beyer said.
While China is now seen as the major threat to US interests around the world Russia is not shying away from aggressive actions itself having already annexed the Crimea from Ukraine and being heavily involved in Syria and now Libya, it is continually upgrading its military capabilities and carrying out constant military drills focusing on new frontiers such as the Arctic. This is raising fears of action towards the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia should President Vladimir Putin wish to bring Russian populations within those countries back within Russian borders.
Moving troops away from this region could leave vulnerabilities that an empowered Russia may wish to exploit in the future.
Let us know your thoughts. What could a NATO global focus look like? Would moving forces out of Germany leave Europe vulnerable or are they better used to face a threat from China? Should allies in the Pacific be doing more to combat Chinese aggression? Comment below or email
