Top 5 – Defence Connect’s best Key Enabler, Analysis stories

The 2020s have kicked off with one hell of a bang; rising great power tension between the US and China, a global pandemic that has thrown the global economy into turmoil, economic, political and strategic tensions throughout the Indo-Pacific and an increasingly diverse range of challenges facing Australia. 

While the government has moved to respond to the rapidly deteriorating geo-strategic circumstances transforming the Indo-Pacific, largely through the 2020 Defence Strategic Update, 2020 Force Structure Plan and a series of important acquisition and critically policy announcements as Australia seeks to reassert its position in the region. 

Defence Connect's growing Insight offering now includes a podcast and subject matter expert Op-Eds to support the detailed analysis and thought leadership provided daily. 

1. Sorry Hewson, you’re wrong: The ADF’s primary role is to defend the nation, not disaster response

Former Liberal opposition leader John Hewson has issued a rallying cry to see the ADF mobilised to address the nation’s “greatest security threat”, climate change, citing a number of reasons for repurposing the ADF – revealing a startlingly narrow view of the ADF’s role in securing Australia’s place in the Indo-Pacific.

We can all agree that Australia's bushfire crisis earlier this year was a tragedy for the communities afflicted and the local ecosystems damaged by the fires, which have served as a critical part of the continent's environmental cycle since time immemorial. 

Both sides of the political spectrum have sought, albeit in a thinly veiled way, to politicise the ongoing bushfires and the drought, with protests in major cities drawing tens of thousands of people, through to often heated exchanges during television interviews or cringe worthy visits by national and state leaders to the disaster ravaged communities. 

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This is not about debating the merits of climate science and the myriad approaches the respective parties, each seeking to further one point of view or another or the 'solutions' associated with each – it is not an area of expertise for this publication, the author and nor is it a forum for pontificating. 

It is, however, to respond to the ludicrous claims made by former Liberal opposition leader John Hewson, demanding the mobilisation of the Australian Defence Force to respond to the 'climate crisis' in a piece for The Sydney Morning Herald titled, 'Our greatest security threat is climate change, so mobilise the ADF'.  

Hewson launches into a scathing piece, superfluously stating: "Life is about and defined by choices – how we make them, what we decide, and how we live with the consequences. Governments have a particular responsibility as we rely on them to make choices on our behalf, especially the bigger national choices that we feel somewhat powerless to make or influence, while they use our money to fund them."

2. Chinese ambassador redoubles threats, as nation juggles ‘new normal’

Beijing’s ambassador to Australia, Cheng Jingye, has joined a growing chorus from Beijing placing increased pressure on the Australian government to abandon its push for an independent, international review into the cause of COVID-19 and the response of the World Health Organisation, with Australia’s economic dependence on China firmly in the crosshairs.

Australia has enjoyed a record setting three decades of uninterrupted economic growth buoyed by the voracious appetite of a growing China. However all good things come to end as the political, economic and strategic competition between the US and China enters a new phase placing both the global and Australian economies in a precarious position.

China's share of global GDP has risen from 15 per cent to 20 per cent, based on purchasing power parity. India, the region's other emerging economic and industrial powerhouse, has seen its share of the global economy double from around 4 per cent to 8 per cent since the beginning of the 21st century, however the economic rise has given way to growing geo-strategic designs and competition throughout the region and is serving to unpick the fabric of the post-Second World War order.

From the South China Sea (SCS) to the increasing hostilities between India, Pakistan and China in the Kashmir region of the Himalayas, the Indo-Pacific's changing paradigm, and growing economic, political and strategic competition between the US and China. 

Enter Beijing's ambassador to Australia, Cheng Jingye, who has redoubled the rhetoric of Beijing to place increasing pressure on Australia to "fall into line" and stop questioning Beijing's narrative for fear of catastrophic economic repercussions across sectors heavily dependent upon China's voracious appetite. 

These threats are particularly targeted at Australia's raw materials, resources, energy and agricultural products and the services orientated aspects of the national economy, namely tertiary education and real estate. 

Cheng echoed sentiments out of Beijing regarding Australia's response to COVID-19, telling The Australian Financial Review: "It's a kind of pandering to the assertions that are made by some forces in Washington. Over a certain period of time, some guys are attempting to blame China for their problems and deflect the attention.

"So what is being done by the Australia side? The proposition is a kind of teaming up with those forces in Washington and to launch a kind of political campaign against China. The Chinese public is frustrated, dismayed and disappointed with what Australia is doing now.

"I think in the long term ... if the mood is going from bad to worse, people would think 'Why should we go to such a country that is not so friendly to China? The tourists may have second thoughts. The parents of the students would also think whether this place which they found is not so friendly, even hostile, whether this is the best place to send their kids here.

"It is up to the people to decide. Maybe the ordinary people will say 'Why should we drink Australian wine? Eat Australian beef?" 

These statements echo similar comments made by Chang from late-2019 where he moved to remind "Australia who pays its bills" in a special interview with The Australian, during which he reaffirmed China's commitment to "peaceful development" and a peaceful Chinese rise in the Indo-Pacific. 

3. Right on cue: PLAN conducts muscle-flexing exercise near Taiwan

As if to mock the crippled world, Beijing has launched a provocative series of muscle-flexing exercises near Taiwan and the South China Sea, capitalising on the diminished US and allied presence in the region, adding further fuel to regional competition and fears about the rising power’s ambitions for the Indo-Pacific.

Naval power has always played a critical role in the way great powers interact – subsequent arms races to design the most powerful warships often characterising the great power competitions of the past.

Retired US Navy Rear Admiral Michael McDevitt recently shed light on the growing capabilities of the Chinese Navy as the naval arms race between the world's pre-eminent superpower – the US – and China's rising position continues to gather pace. 

McDevitt's analysis for the US Naval Institute, China's Navy will be the World's largest in 2035, paints a startling picture for both the US and key allies like Australia, who will be increasingly called upon to supplement the US Navy as it seeks to maintain the post-Second World War regional and global order, stating:

"He [Xi Jinping] wants the naval modernisation associated with becoming world class 'to be largely completed by 2035', just 15 years away. China has yet to publish its intended navy force structure objective, which remains a state secret.

"To speculate on what the PLAN will look like in 15 years, a good starting point is to assess what it has done in the past 15 years. In this short decade and a half, China launched and/or commissioned 131 blue-water capable ships and built approximately 144 other warships destined for operations only in China’s near seas, for a grand total of approximately 275 new warships.

By far the most potent and powerful reminder of America's global military reach is its fleet of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, nowhere is this more evident than in the Indo-Pacific as the floating fortress airfields enable the US and it's regional partners like Australia, Japan and others to operate with a previously unrivalled sense of tactical and strategic freedom.

However, the quarantine of the USS Theodore Roosevelt has provided an opportunity for the People's Liberation Army to once again push the limits as it asserts its newly found tactical and strategic power with relative impunity in the key maritime choke points like the South China Sea and, more concerningly, the Taiwan Strait.  

Leading the charge is China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning and a flotilla of supporting vessels, arrayed in a traditional carrier strike group configuration as the PLA seeks to perfect the integration of the platform, airwing and concept of operations (CONOPS) for carrier operations in a contested environment. 

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) has identified the increased assertiveness of the PLA during these troubling times, with the SCMP stating, "The People’s Liberation Army has resumed regular military drills at home and overseas, moves that military experts say are a show of strength and control over the COVID-19 outbreak.

"The ground forces, navy and air force of the PLA’s five theatre commands started military drills this month, with some exercises involving joint operations, according to several reports published by the PLA Daily in recent days.

"On Saturday, one of the large-scale drills resumed. A six-ship flotilla, led by the Liaoning aircraft carrier, sailed through the Miyako Strait – just 330 kilometres (205 miles) due east of the northernmost tip of Taiwan – on its way to the western Pacific."

Beijing's defiance despite increasing global pressure in the ensuing fall out of the COVID-19 pandemic seems to have fallen on deaf ears in Beijing, with Chinese Navy spokesperson saying, "In the future, the Chinese Navy will continue to organise similar training schedules to accelerate and improve the combat capability of its aircraft carrier strike groups."

The reappearance of Liaoning is the first since the US Navy's four Pacific-based aircraft carriers have been caught amid a combination of COVID-19 lockdowns, scheduled maintenance and the like marking a major escalation in the great power competition between Washington and Beijing. 

4. Pentagon report warns: China ahead in key strategic multipliers

A startling Pentagon report has revealed that Beijing’s military modernisation and expansion programs have seen the People’s Liberation Army leapfrog the US and its allies in the region, as the nation focuses on developing an “increasingly modern and flexible force”.

The unique geographic realities of Indo-Pacific Asia ranges from vast swathes of deep, open ocean to Australia's west, to relatively shallow, congested and narrow archipelagic bound choke points, including the Straits of Malacca, Lombok Strait and into the South China Sea (SCS).

While the US and its allies, including Australia, have made concerted efforts to directly counter Beijing's increased militarism in the region, a startling new report commissioned by the Pentagon for Congress, titled Military and Security Developments involving the People's Republic of China: 2020  has revealed the startling progress of the nation's efforts. 

Concerningly, the report identifies that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has already achieved parity and in some cases exceeds the capabilities of the US and its allies, with the report stating: 

"The PRC’s strategy includes advancing a comprehensive military modernisation program that aims to “basically” complete military modernisation by 2035 and transform the PLA into a 'world class' military by the end of 2049.

"The PLA’s evolving capabilities and concepts continue to strengthen the PRC’s ability to counter an intervention by an adversary in the Indo-Pacific region and project power globally. In 2019, the PLA continued to make progress implementing major structural reforms, fielding modern indigenous systems, building readiness, and strengthening its competency to conduct joint operations.

"China has already achieved parity with — or even exceeded — the United States in several military modernisation areas."

A key component of Beijing's growing tactical, strategic and economic advantages over the US and its allies, all of whom are now floundering amid prolonged periods of economic stagnation. Further impacted by COVID-19 is the nation's rampaging industrialisation supported by government policy that nurtures and protects the national interest. 

The Pentagon report clearly identifies the efforts made by Beijing to expand its national power and prestige and the 'national strategy' used to maximise the increasing capability of its industrial base. 

"The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) strategy aims to achieve 'the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation' by 2049. China’s strategy can be characterised as a determined pursuit of political and social modernity that includes far-ranging efforts to expand China’s national power, perfect its governance systems, and revise the international order," it says.

Expanding on this further, the report states, "The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) frames this strategy as an effort to realise long-held nationalist aspirations to 'return' China to a position of strength, prosperity, and leadership on the world stage. The CCP’s leadership has long viewed China as embroiled in a major international strategic
competition with other states, including, and in particular, the United States.

5. A return to normality or the middle course? Lowy raises questions about Biden

While some leaders around the world have rushed to congratulate presumptive President-elect Joe Biden on the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, questions remain about just what exactly a Biden/Harris administration will mean for the foreign policy community and how it will approach the new era of great power competition.

For many in both the US and around the world, the election of Donald Trump in 2016 was an aberration, elected on the back of seemingly nationalist "America First" policies and commitments of restoring a "lost" greatness to the US, which had declined, particularly under the Obama administration.

Focused on returning "stolen" jobs to the long forgotten rust belt of middle America, rebalancing the lopsided trade relationship with the nation's largest economic, political and strategic competitor in China, cracking down on "lazy" allies in across the globe, Trump's policy approach was focused on one thing: Making America Great Again.

This wrecking ball of a President flew in the face of all established convention and etiquette directly confronting the media, Republican and Democratic powerbrokers and world leaders seemingly without reprieve as he disrupted the global norm, causing many in the media, strategic policy community and governments around the world to shudder in fear lest they draw the wrath of the mercurial leader of the free world. 

While both sides of the political spectrum, both within the US and increasingly around the world, have taken up arms against one another, as is evidenced by mounting social, economic and political tensions in the aftermath of the 2016 election, the President has largely stood true to his word.

Trump moved quickly to hold Communist China more accountable for the economic manipulations and strategic ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, while seeking to make long dependent US allies across Europe and in parts of the Indo-Pacific, more accountable and invested in their collective security, bringing teeth to president Obama's own push to hold allies more accountable. 

On the opposite side of the political aisle in Washington, presumptive President-elect Joe Biden would seemingly be a known, stabilising quantity for the global community and Australia's public policymakers in particular, with a long history of foreign engagement and a recent history to inform the approach of a potential Biden administration. 

Biden draws on extensive foreign policy experience dating back to the Cold War, with the presumptive President-elect playing a pivotal role in the Obama administration's apparent policy reset after the George W. Bush administration, one that many would debate the efficacy of, particularly in the realm of great power competition. 

However, while the world waits with bated breath to see the final outcome of the election, Daniel Flitton, in a piece for the Lowy Institute's Interpreter, titled, 'Joe Biden: Big questions and great expectations'  raises some important questions for Australian consideration, particularly as a new President will bring new designs for the Indo-Pacific. 

Meanwhile, retired US Marine Corps officer and former US diplomat, currently a senior research fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies and the Center for Security Policy, Grant Newsham, and associate professor in practice at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore James Crabtree remain skeptical of the presumptive President-elect's stance on the Indo-Pacific.