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As a new round of peace talks between the Afghan government and Taliban emerge, what outcome can we expect?
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Three weeks ago, Defence Connect Insights reviewed whether the West’s “forever war” in Afghanistan may come to a close in the not-too-distant future. Using assertions from former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt published in ASPI, we assessed the necessary steps for the US to create tribal consensus in the country and create regional stability.
While the Trump administration had made overtures to the Taliban to bring an end to decades – if not hundreds of years of instability in the region– will the Biden administration, which is still in its infancy, be able to execute this vision of peace?
Author of Iran rising: the survival and future of the Islamic Republic and adjunct Professor at the University of Western Australia Amin Saikal examines this at length in ASPI’s The Strategist this week.
The Biden administration has approached the question of peace between the US and the Taliban considerably more sternly than the Trump administration. This was overwhelmingly evidenced by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s correspondence last week with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, strongly recommending decisive action on behalf of the Afghan government to ensure amicable resolutions with the Taliban.
“Understand the urgency of my tone,” Secretary Blinken wrote.
“The security situation will worsen and that the Taliban could make rapid territorial gains.”
Secretary Blinken is seemingly aware that a premature departure could be disastrous to the Afghan government as well as the US and its allies both in the region and globally.
Initially, the US had agreed to withdraw coalition troops by 1 May provided the Taliban had undertaken peaceful co-operation with the Afghan government. Other alternatives being touted by the US now include a United Nations led conference in Turkey to mediate between the political tribes and further encourage them to approve a mutually agreeable government, constitution and Islamic Council. Turkey has agreed to host such a meeting.
“Blinken’s proposal is very much along the lines of the US-driven and UN-led Afghan Bonn peace conference of December 2001. That event, which took place following America’s toppling of Taliban rule, mapped out a political transition for Afghanistan, without the participation of the Taliban since it was designated as a terrorist group”, Saikal said.
Saikal notes that Trump preferred for a military withdrawal regardless of the outcomes of the Doha agreement or subsequent peace talks. In return for a ceasefire upon coalition forces, the Taliban would see 5,000 of its supporters released in exchange for the release of 1,000 government captives under Taliban control.
While this was a sub-optimal agreement in Saikal’s view, Blinken’s letter of demands to the Afghan government have exacerbated accusations that Ghani and his supporters are a puppet of the US.
“Speaking on behalf of the government, the first vice-president and former head of the Afghan National Directorate of Security, Amrullah Saleh, criticised Blinken’s initiative as unacceptable”, Saikal writes.
Even among the anti-Taliban political class in Afghanistan, division is ripe. Whereas former minister Ismail Khan agrees with Saleh, former president Hamid Karzai support’s the Biden administration’s plan.
Saikal notes that while the Blinken’s forceful hand may encourage the government and Taliban to come to an agreement – it could also cause them to entrench themselves in their demands.
As for now – it remains unknown what direction the peace talks will head in. It also remains unknown whether there will be peace talks at all. However, it seems that the Afghani government and Taliban will have to overlook decades of bad blood to make peace in Afghanistan viable.
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