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Canberra and Washington must counter the growing Chinese threat by leveraging their long-standing relationship to ramp up engagement with Indo-Pacific partners, one analyst observes.
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The escalation in Chinese aggression across the Indo-Pacific has generated a new sense of urgency among regional governments for a new counter strategy.
According to Erik Jacobs, analyst at the Centre for Independent Studies, Beijing’s multi-pronged bullying tactics have provided actors with a frightening glimpse into a China-dominated future.
“[Regional] governments are right to be concerned about what a future of economic coercion, maritime disputes, and contested resource rights and shipping lanes may hold,” he writes.
This threat, Jacobs argues, can be countered by renewed efforts to build a coalition of regional nations with a shared interest in keeping Beijing at bay.
Jacobs proposes that Australia and the US leverage their long-standing relationship to “deepen existing partnerships, build nascent strategic ties, and find new ways to co-operate” with regional governments.
“The long-term importance of these relationships is apparent in strategic outlooks coming out of both Washington and Canberra,” he continues.
“The existing US-Australia Alliance should be a key pillar underpinning an Indo-Pacific region free from coercion and open to unhindered navigation and overflight, with the reborn Quadrilateral Strategic Dialogue (Quad) serving as another pillar.”
According to Jacobs, strengthening ties with Tokyo must be Canberra and Washington’s first priority.
The CIS analyst suggests that greater engagement with Japan could involve a ramp-up in defence training cooperation, or the tracking and sharing of intelligence on Chinese maritime operations in the East China Sea.
Jacobs also calls on Canberra and Washington to conduct more intelligence-sharing with India in future Malabar Exercises, particularly on Chinese activities in the Indian Ocean and the Malacca Straits.
He goes on to note that Australia and the US could explore opportunities to enhance cooperation with nations like Singapore, Vietnam and Indonesia, which he says are “hedging” the changing Indo-Pacific dynamics in a “more deliberative fashion”.
Jacobs concedes that building ties with such nations would likely be “incremental”, but suggests that Japan could play a “potentially prominent” role.
He claims that Australia and the US should encourage Japan to build on recent defence exports and transfers to the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia.
Jacobs also notes the potential for increased cooperation on maritime intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) training to bolster the defensive capabilities of south-east Asian states, which could participate in future Quad discussions on maritime security.
Moreover, Jacobs proposes that deeper co-operation between the US, Australia and other nations on non-military issues — supply chain integrity, advanced and emerging technologies, critical minerals, and vaccines — could foster relationships with other regional nations, weary of dependence on China.
He adds: “Increased Australian energy exports to Japan also present an opportunity for trade diversification and growth in the face of Beijing’s campaign of economic coercion.”
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