AUKUS: Shaking up the Indo-Pacific status quo

Australia’s decision to acquire nuclear-powered submarines doesn’t just signal a significant shift in the maritime status quo in the region, it also raises questions and new challenges around the issues in play regarding politics, diplomacy, the impact on local SMEs, defence industry, science and technology,

The accelerated changes to regional security and the rapidly advancing rate of military modernisation were part of the key considerations that led to Australia’s strategy re-evaluation according to a media statement published by the Commonwealth government. Due to the rapid pace in which regional security requirements have evolved, conventional submarines are no longer suited to fulfil the operational needs in the decades ahead.

The Commonwealth government has asserted that it is necessary for Australia to have access to the most capable submarine technology available as a three-ocean nation. Pursuing the most advanced submarine technology available and to accelerate the production of a more capable, integrated, nuclear-powered submarine platform is necessary to defend Australia and its national interests.

For Vice-Admiral Paul Maddison (ret’d), UNSW Defence Research Institute director, the alliance was good news for UNSW’s defence and security community.

“The significance of the US decision to share nuclear submarine propulsion technology with Australia cannot be overstated.

“This establishes a new inner circle of trust among the Five Eyes nations, which purposely leaves New Zealand and Canada on the outside looking in.”

“It places Australia at the front of the queue, alongside the UK, as Washington’s most trusted and respected strategic partner,” Maddison said.

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Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarine technology via AUKUS is designed to leverage on decades of experience from the US and UK. Changing strategic gears inclined towards a nuclear-powered submarine fleet came down to the absence of limitations.

Nuclear-powered submarines can be completely submerged for many months, hindering opportunities for detection by adversaries whereas conventionally powered (diesel or electric) submarines do not have the same range in capability. Weapons storage, speed and endurance are key conventional submarine constraints that are not areas of concern for its nuclear-powered counterparts.

Starting over

With a view to creating a strong and effective sustainment industry and meet all requirements to safely operate and maintain nuclear-powered submarines locally, the government has maintained that it intends to maximise the use of Australian workers by building nuclear-powered submarines in South Australia.

While the Opposition has affirmed its support for the AUKUS-enhanced security partnership and nuclear submarines, the Labor Party is now pushing for the government to provide a roadmap for impacted workers and SMEs following the cancellation of the $90 billion submarine deal with France’s Naval Group.

“In addition to a yet unknown cancellation fee for the Attack Class contract, up to $4 billion has already been spent.

“A program that is running 10 years late from its original schedule and $40 billion over budget.

“The government must be transparent about how much money has been burnt in the process,” a Labor Party release read.

After three separate deals and eight years into this program, the Commonwealth government is now starting from scratch, a Labor Party release outlined, taking aim at the government's management of the Attack Class submarine project.

Remaining in stealth mode

As Australia works towards establishing a Nuclear-Powered Submarine Taskforce in the Department of Defence, the trilateral partnership will co-operatively examine the full suite of requirements that underpin nuclear stewardship to be able to demonstrate a clear pathway to becoming a responsible and reliable steward of this sensitive technology.

Under AUKUS, the three nations are aiming immediate focus on identifying the optimal pathway to deliver at least eight nuclear-powered submarines for Australia.

The switch to nuclear power also presents a much broader, long-term impact on the future undersea detection technologies on the vulnerability of submarines particularly those carrying nuclear weapons. Professor Rory Medcalf, the head of the National Security College at The Australian National University, is forecasting the race to detect and neutralise SSBNs will intensify, and the effect of strategic stability can potentially reach far beyond the Indo-Pacific region.

“Strategic competition is accelerating in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in relation to China’s assertiveness and power, and in spite of the great disruption of COVID-19.

“This rivalry involves increased investment in undersea nuclear forces.

“Whether or not future detection technologies will render the world’s oceans transparent, thus making SSBNs vulnerable to detection and destruction, is a matter of great and growing contention,” Medcalf said.

Developing defence capabilities

Historically, the combination of legislative, regulatory, cultural and strategic trust deficits in national capitals render seamless collaboration outside of special projects difficult. The most important aspect of the AUKUS partnership is its potential to gain traction past the initial maritime scope, according to Maddison.

“There is recognition in defence circles that current international defence sharing processes are no longer fit for the purpose of accelerating the creation of new competitive advantage military capability across the Technical Readiness Levels (TRL).

“The challenges associated with introducing nuclear propulsion into the RAN will be huge, and the path from the announcement to seeing Australian-built nuclear-powered combat-capable submarines flying the White Ensign on the west coast will be fraught with complex technical, training, financial, workforce and political hurdles,” he added.

Beyond the AUKUS submarine initiative, the unprecedented opportunity for US, UK and Australian research teams to collaborate by sharing knowledge focused on work that contributes to a collective national security interest is invaluable Maddison added, welcoming the milestone defence development opportunities the AUKUS has revealed.

“The UNSW Defence Research Institute is well-positioned to engage with Defence and our US/UK partners to gain more traction for our researchers in contributing to the long-term success of the alliance,” Maddison said.

“Perhaps most important in the AUKUS announcement is language around enhanced collaboration in developing defence capabilities in the fields of AI, cyber, hypersonics, quantum technologies and others.”

This article originally appeared in the Defence Connect maritime special edition, which can be viewed here.