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Speculation is growing about the future of Australia’s nuclear-powered submarine capability, with it no longer seeming like a case of either/or, but rather a case of both?
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We’re now only a few days and short sleeps away from finding out the details about Australia’s optimal pathway to procuring a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to join his British counterpart, Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden at the Coronado Naval Base, in San Diego, to formally announce the details.
Now, there are rumours swirling about the nation’s pathway, including an “interim” solution to our well-documented submarine gap, with Reuters reporting that Australia will acquire up to five Virginia Class nuclear-powered attack submarines from the United States, beginning in the 2030s.
It is proposed that this deal would see Australia initially acquire three Virginia Class vessels, with the option to acquire an additional two submarines as part of the trilateral AUKUS pact announced by former prime minister Scott Morrison in September 2021.
Meanwhile, this “interim” solution would pave the way to a longer term, seemingly whole-of-AUKUS solution, with Australia slated to acquire a larger fleet of British-designed nuclear-powered submarines, potentially the currently-in-development SSN(R) design, while incorporating a US combat system and a suite of advanced US weapons.
This has been reported by The Guardian UK, with a senior government official reporting an elated Prime Minister Sunak has told the British cabinet, “The deal has definitely gone our way. The prime minister was buzzing about it when he told ministers, smiling and bouncing on the balls of his feet”.
Despite the excitement, this outcome presents some questions and challenges for Australia moving forward, namely, will the planned acquisition of the significantly larger Virginia Class vessels be used as the “surge” focuses on developing Australia’s nuclear-powered submarine workforce?
Building on this, noting the very well-documented submarine-building capacity in the US, how will Australia acquire these Virginia Class vessels without having a detrimental impact on the US Navy’s own acquisition plans at a period of time where their own force structure plans and strategic analysis calls for a larger submarine fleet, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
Both the United Kingdom and United States are currently in the development stages of their next-generation attack submarines, the SSN(R) and SSN(X) respectively — the vessels are designed to be the ocean’s apex predators, responsible for silently stalking enemy surface and submarine vessels, leveraging next-generation power generation capability, hypersonic weapons, advanced sensors, and potentially playing host to a suite of autonomous underwater vessels to enhance their lethality.
The British SSN(R), successor to the in-service Astute Class submarines, is expected to be fielded by 2040 and is expected to be 25 per cent larger physically than its predecessor, drawing on the new generation PWR3 reactor slated for introduction with the currently under construction Dreadnought Class ballistic missile submarines and will, for the first time for the Royal Navy’s submarine force, will incorporate vertical launch systems, opening the avenue to a host of existing and planned weapons systems granting the Royal Navy an increased offensive firepower.
Meanwhile, the US SSN(X) which will replace the US Navy’s Cold War-era Seawolf Class submarines and the older variants of the Virginia Class vessels is expected to be significantly larger than its British counterpart and is described by the US Congressional Budget Office as, “The Navy indicates that the next-generation attack submarine should be faster, stealthier, and able to carry more torpedoes than the Virginia Class — similar to the Seawolf Class submarine. CBO therefore assumed that the SSN(X) would be a Seawolf-sized SSN, which displaces about 9,100 tonnes when submerged, and would have an all-new design in keeping with the Navy’s description of it as a fast, lethal next-generation attack submarine.”
More to come.
